Canadians prefer Arizona homes far more than California or Texas homes

Arizona is second only to Florida with Canadian home buyers.

Where Canadian Buy US Homes

I bet Arizona is the top destination for home buyers from British Columbia and Alberta.

It’s become super convenient for Canadians to travel to Arizona. The number of daily direct flights from western Canada to Arizona has skyrocketed over the last 10 years.

For example, with a quick online search I found 7 direct flights in one day from Calgary to Phoenix. Direct flights take only 3 hours so it’s a quick way to get a break from the Canadian winters. (For example, the high temperature on a recent day in Edmonton was -9 degrees celsius.)

In addition, property taxes are phenomenally lower in Arizona than in California or Texas (or Florida, for that matter) which greatly lowers the overall cost of owning vacation homes in Arizona.

  • Factoid: About 86% of Canadians paid all cash for their American homes according to a study published last year by economists at the National Association or Realtors.

Are you a Canadian? Please leave a comment comparing Arizona to other states for your winter home. Thanks!

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I just recorded a radio interview!

ADDED: Click here to listen to the interview!

I was just interviewed in studio by Steve Goldstein on KJZZ radio about the Phoenix real estate market and my 2015 forecast. It’ll probably be on this afternoon.

It will be on tomorrow afternoon (Friday, November 14) on “KJZZ’s The Show” 2:00-3:00 with Steve Goldstein. I know it will be on tomorrow’s show because they just promoted the interview at the end of today’s show. Cool!

Check it out.

I was trying to be animated. Hopefully, I didn’t go too far… :) You tell me!

The interview was largely based on this blog post.

Welcome KJZZ listeners!

Thank you, Steve Goldstein!

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Do you have a home security camera? You must read this!

Please remember it’s VERY important to set strong passwords on security cameras unless you want the whole world to see inside your home.

“Randomly clicking around revealed an elderly woman sitting but a few feet away from a camera in Scotland. In Virginia, a woman sat on the floor playing with a baby; the camera manufacturer was Linksys. There was a baby sleeping in a crib in Canada, courtesy of an unsecured Foscam camera, the brand of camera most commonly listed when pointing down at cribs.”

Read the whole article at, Peeping into 73,000 unsecured security cameras thanks to default passwords.

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Forecast for 2015 Phoenix real estate market

John Wake of HomeSmart expects 2015 to be the most “normal” real estate market Phoenix has seen in over 10 years with generally flat home prices and a low level of new listings paired with low sales which will create a more or less balanced residential real estate market in Phoenix.

Low number of homes hitting the market (low supply)

  • We’re through the backlog of homes. It looks like we’ve worked our way through the backlog of homes that 1) people wanted to sell in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 but didn’t because home prices were so low, and 2) that people were happy to sell at 2012, 2013 and 2014 home prices.
  • 18% still underwater. Despite the very large home price increases in 2012 and 2013, about 18% of Arizona homeowners are still seriously underwater on their mortgages (Phoenix Business Journal). Many of those underwater homeowners would sell their homes if home prices were higher, however, it seems unlikely that home prices will go much higher in 2015. At current Phoenix home prices, it’s as if the potential supply of homes for sale has been reduced by 18%.

Low number of homes sold (low demand)

  • Millenials. The Millennial generation has tons of student loan debt which makes it difficult for them to borrow money to buy their first homes. They’re also delaying marriage and marriage is a huge trigger for home buying.
  • Previously foreclosed. People who have been foreclosed on or who did a short sale in recent years still aren’t able to borrow money to buy homes. (Others who were foreclosed on earlier in the real estate bust are now able to borrow money to buy homes, however, some of them may have lost their appetite for homeownership altogether after their previous painful experiences.)
  • Low population growth. Arizona population growth at around 1% is way below the previously typical figure of about 2% annual growth in population. Having 60,000 fewer people move to Arizona each year significantly lowers the number of homes sold.
  • Homeownership rate down. Whatever the reason, the homeownership rate in Arizona fell to 63% from 64% a year ago which may signal that Arizonans are slightly less in love with owning their own homes than they were before the real estate boom and bust.

Click here to watch the August 2013 video John mentioned in the video above.

Phoenix Real Estate Boom, Bust & Return to “Normal”

Cromford Report - Annual Sales Rate & Price Trends

Dark Blue = Normal Home Sales
Light Blue = Short Sales
Orange = Bank Owned Sales (foreclosures)
Gray = HUD Home Sales
John Wake added the price trend lines to Mike Orr’s The Cromford Report chart above.

See Also

  • Elliot Pollack’s forecast for the Phoenix real estate market in 2015
  • ADDED: NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun talks about the U.S. real estate market
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    Black Sphinx dates are still amazing!

    I picked up my third flat of Black Sphinx dates from Erica’s house today. She said they had 3 more flats (12 1-pound boxes per flat). After that, she expected to harvest 4 more flats and then that’s it for this year.

    Thank goodness for Erica!

    Harry, the guy who worked the date grove for decades, got Parkinson’s and had to stop working the trees. BTW, last winter when I saw Harry he was in amazingly good spirits although he was having some difficulty walking.

    Anyway, I’m totally nuts about Black Sphinx dates. They’re fresh, not dried like every other date. Think of the difference between grapes and raisins or plums and prunes. The fresh fruit is entirely different from the dried fruit.

    Erica lives in the Date Grove in Arcadia (where I used to live) and works some trees in her yard and maybe some neighbors’ trees, I’m not sure.

    Crazy Date Santa Claus

    Thank goodness for Erica, otherwise, I wouldn’t have gotten any Black Sphinx dates this year.

    I’ve been having a complete blast being a crazy “Date Santa Claus” handing out dates to my friends and family!

    Fruitful Gifts

    In fact, I loved the dates so much I had a mail order business called “Fruitful Gifts” in the late 1990s and my signature product was Black Sphinx dates, although I sold them under my trademarked name, “Celebration” dates.

    Here’s the story of the origin of Black Sphinx dates from the 2000 “Fruitful Gifts” online catalog.

    Newspaper Quotes

    My main marketing idea was to send samples to food writers at the top U.S. newspapers and, honestly, many writers LOVED them.

    “Melts in your mouth”
    Sunset Magazine

    “Could anything this rich, dark and luscious really not be chocolate?”
    Chicago Sun-Times

    “May be the country’s most exquisite natural food”
    Atlanta Journal-Constitution

    “They literally melt in your mouth”
    Dallas Morning News

    “Luscious treats”
    San Jose Mercury News

    “Super-creamy, delicate treasures”
    Salt Lake Tribune

    “Rich, creamy and melt in your mouth”
    Denver Post

    “As different from dried dates as grapes are from raisins”
    Houston Chronicle

    Not Lost Yet

    Unfortunately, I couldn’t make a go of the business.

    Fortunately, Erica is still working a few trees and this native Phoenix date variety hasn’t been lost… yet.

    To Buy Some Black Sphinx Dates

    I don’t know of anyone else selling Black Sphinx dates.

    If you would like to buy some, you’ll have to call Erica very soon and arrange to pick them up at Erica’s house in the Date Grove in Arcadia. They’re $8 per ~1 pound box. Contact me for her phone number.


    See also “Save the Date – Black Sphinx Dates”.

    P.S. I promise to get back to Phoenix real estate market analysis very soon!

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    SOLD. Great 5-bedroom home in Gilbert AZ. Check out the pool!

    Now Priced $15K Below Appraisal!

    It won’t last long at this price.
    5 bedrooms + 3 full baths + Formal dining room + Living room + Family room + Loft + Gorgeous backyard

    LARGE KITCHEN with NEW granite countertops and travertine backsplash, kitchen island with breakfast bar, plus breakfast room, stainless steel style appliances & huge walk-in pantry! All baths updated with NEW tile shower surrounds. Master bath has tub, walk-in shower with dual shower heads and shower bench seat. NEW flooring throughout – ceramic tile and carpeting. GORGEOUS BACKYARD – beautiful pool with water shears, natural gas barbecue and cooking counter, custom landscaping, adobe stone pool decking and patio (all NEW in 2006). Energy-saving sunscreens. Interior and exterior completely painted with top quality paint 2 years ago.

    CLICK HERE to see PRICE, PHOTOS, FLOOR PLAN and MAP.

    Gilbert AZ Home for Sale with Pool

    Call your real estate agent to schedule a tour or call me at (480) 463-4475. John Wake, HomeSmart

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    Lower home sales caused by higher rates

    Makes sense. Even though rates are incredibly low, they’re significantly higher than last spring. It’s the delta.

    “Changes in fundamentals such as rising mortgage rates can account for much of the sluggishness in existing home sales over the past year,” Krainer said. Home resales have slowed sharply since the second half of 2013, declining in seven of the eight months through March. They peaked in July.

    Mortgage rates started trending higher last May in anticipation of the Federal Reserve scaling back its monthly bond-purchasing program. The 30-year fixed rate increased by about a percentage point from last May, when it was 3.54 percent, to its most recent peak of 4.49 percent in September. It has since dropped to average about 4.34 percent in April.

    On the good side, he thinks, “As the moderate recovery continues and these factors begin to dissipate, all forms of housing market activity, including existing home sales, should post more solid growth.”

    Full article.

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