PMI estimates metro Phoenix has a 17.9% chance of a home price decline within the next two years, up from 14.6% in April.
Phoenix was ranked 27th among the nation’s 50 largest housing markets in terms of risk for a price decline. In April, Phoenix was ranked 30th.
This is one of the best home market studies. It’s not from academics but from a business whose success is dependent upon accurate estimates. It’s required reading for investors.
… the nation’s 50 largest housing markets now have on average a 28.8% chance of experiencing a house price decline within the next two years.
… Over the past several quarters we’ve seen steadily decreasing affordability index scores for many of the major metropolitan areas in the country, a trend that’s exacerbated by increasing interest rates. And it’s visible in the shrinking size of the typical down payment. Unlike our parents’ generation, most of us today don’t put down 20 percent—or even close to it. In fact, according to the National Association of Realtors, the average down payment among first-time homebuyers in 2005 was just 2
percent.… Las Vegas led the nation in job creation with employment growth of 6.2% over the past 12 months, followed closely by Phoenix at 6%.
… The risk of price declines decreased in 20 of the top 50 markets.
