Arizona Real Estate Notebook

9 responses so far ↓

• 1 mrd // Sep 15, 2006 at 9:23 pm

  This is the same graph that you posted in August. The name of the image is identical to what is shown further down on your web page (Market_Glance_10825_image001.gif).

  Side note: I like your web site and visit it often. Keep up the good work.

• 2 John L. Wake // Sep 15, 2006 at 10:32 pm

  mrd,

  I wondered if anyone would notice that.

  Well, it’s easier for me to use the same image name every month.

  It’s a bit of an artifact left over from the way I did it before I started the blog. Back then, I only had one web page for the graph which I updated every month.

  It gets real complex making the graphs and doing the flash commentary. I find it a bit less confusing to use the same file name each month.

  When I update the graph, it updates all previous months’ graphs as well, of course.

  To see what a graph looked like in a previous month, you can click on the flash commentary for that month.

  One of the advantages (disadvantages?) of this blog format, however, is that you can check my flash commentary from previous months and see how right or wrong I got it back then.

• 3 John L. Wake // Sep 15, 2006 at 10:37 pm

  mrd,

  And thanks so much for the complement and taking the time to comment.

  I really appreciate it.

• 4 mrd // Sep 15, 2006 at 10:49 pm

  I think that I understand: You update the one picture and that picture is now the same throughout your webpage. However, while the picture may be the same, the flash commentary will have the correct graph for any particular month. If this is how you have it set up, you still need to update the current picture on the main web page. It does not match what is in the flash commentary for September.

  Sorry if this sounds a bit picky. I’m an experimental physicist and graphs are my life.

• 5 John L. Wake // Sep 15, 2006 at 10:59 pm

  mrd,

  You got it right. Now that I’m getting this blog down into a routine I may be able to use a different graph each month. I’ll look into that to avoid future confusion.

  About September’s graph, I made some minor “improvements” to the graph today after I made the flash commentary. Anyway, the 2 graphs don’t match exactly this month.

  Thanks for the comments. I’ll definitely try to avoid such confusions in the future.

• 6 Cbass // Sep 16, 2006 at 9:41 am

  I notice when the red line dropped down dramatically the green line shot up like a rocket. That must be the supply and demand thing at work. The blue line for the most part seems to be settling in the 5K region now. It is weird because the red line shot up like a rocket shortly there after but the green line is not acting as inversely as before. I guess this is what they call “sticky on the way down.” That is so weird dont you think?

• 7 John L. Wake // Sep 16, 2006 at 12:38 pm

  You got it. Home prices are very “sticky” on the down side.

  Once you believe your home is worth $X, you will be very relucant to sell it for significantly less unless you are absolutely forced to.

  On the other hand, if you believe your home is worth $X and someone offers you $X plus $10,000, that decision will be pretty quick.

  It’s a lot easier for prices to go up than down.

• 8 ED // Sep 17, 2006 at 10:38 am

  HI John:

  Any viewpoint on the listing inventory by major city? I read in the Scottsdale (Republic) that it was felt the inventory was starting to level off in Scottsdale. Yet Elliot Pollack said that there are many new homes coming on the market.

  Right now we’re looking at 9 months of inventory, (a flattening or increasing of supply-please comment) and going into the slow time of year. What’s your feeling of how things will look come January by major metro area?

  Also what impact do you think Intel will have on Chandler?

  THX Ed

• 9 John L. Wake // Sep 17, 2006 at 8:22 pm

  Ed,

  I don’t have the info by city.

  You can do it yourself, however, the data is available for the Scottsdale MLS at http://www.ARMLS.com .

  I don’t know where the inventory (number of homes listed) will be in January but it’s very likely to be higher than it is today throughout the Valley.

  Scottsdale has an 8 month supply of homes listed which sounds bad until you hear Paradise Valley has an 18 month supply of homes listed. Aren’t you glad you aren’t rich! (Those two numbers came from a little email newsletter sent by Karl Stauffer, Diamond GMAC Real Estate.)

  This evening I’m expecting inventory to drift lower January to June 2007 but I reserve the right to change my mind tomorrow if I get new data.

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