Please Vote!

by John Wake on December 7, 2006

Do you think the median home price in Greater Phoenix in 2007 will be;
Up
Down
About the same

  

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

1

Philip Rosenberg 12.08.06 at 6:35 pm

John,
Great Blog! With 125,000 plus people moving to Arizona every year, and our our new job creation still on the upswing home prices have to go up. And, we have the new medical school downtown, the light rail line coming that will help people movement around the city, a new Intel plant going up in Chandler and on and on… We simply have no downsides working against us UNLESS another national tragedy would occur. Then bets are off. Also, the soon we get untangled from Iraq, the better. Mounting debt could or will drive interest rates UP. That’s why buyers ought to be buying NOW, there will be no better time.
Cheers,
Philip

2

Cbass 12.08.06 at 7:50 pm

“We simply have no downsides working against”

Then why are there 45k homes for sale on the MLS?
Why are sales dropping and not just seasonally?

I would say there is a lot of downside risk out there Phil.

With all the new residents here home sales should not be back 2000 levels! We should be breaking records almost yearly with more people living in and moving to the valley. The trend should be a gradually increasing amount of sales ideally, yet we are going in the wrong direction.

I get Johns newsletter on a few of the zips I follow and if they are indicative of the valley as a whole we will be in the less than 4k home sales for December range. Not to impressive.

What say you Realtor Philip?

3

Philip Rosenberg 12.10.06 at 6:04 pm

Ah, asking me for an explanation for the short term run up of the past two to three years, vs. a slight downturn more recently. I think there were too many factors that impacted the “run up” like lower interest rates, an undervalued market to begin with and MEDIA HYPE that fueled investor fires. Did you think the ball that went up, would not come down? In my first comment I was looking at the longer term, not month by month sales or even over the past year. The run up was an anomaly, and a little backswing does not mean the sky is falling nor does it surprise the wise. And there is still money to be made by more astute investors. We just bought for $175,000 (MLS), put about $30 into it, and sold for $239,000. And it was STILL a bargain. I don’t try to time the market, nor do I lead my investors that way. We look at the longer term, as (I think) everyone should whether buying or investing in the RE market or the stock market. And again, it is somewhat the MEDIA hype that is creating a cautious market. If we look, we shall find. I think this is a good market right now for BUYERS. Thanks for your comments.

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