You saw in the graphs below that the inventory of homes for sale has probably peaked. The average days on market, however, is still increasing rapidly.
As the number of days on market increases, a seller is more likely to accept a lower price. So the increasing average days on market puts downward pressure on prices.
Once average days on market starts to decline the downward pressure on Arizona home prices will be relieved somewhat.
Once average days on market goes below 70 days, the odds of a significant decline in Arizona home prices should be very small indeed.
5 responses so far ↓
1 Ken44 // Dec 17, 2006 at 5:38 pm
John:
If the inventory will jump come Jan. it stands to reason the DOM will continue to rise. Therefore, isn`t more likely that home prices will continue to fall?
If so, do you still feel now is a good time to buy?
2 John L. Wake // Dec 17, 2006 at 6:24 pm
Actually, the larger the bump in new listings in January the more the average days on market will decline. All those news listings will start with 0 days on market.
I know what you mean, though.
Many of those long-in-the-tooth listings will have sellers who will start to get serious about selling their homes even if they need to accept less they expected earlier.
It just depends, I think, on the size of the bump in new listings in January.
I still think that if you were putting off buying or you are planning to buy in the next several months, that you should seriously consider buying now.
However, if you were considering buying this December or next December then I don’t have any advice. The bottom might be next December. It’s too soon to tell
3 Ken44 // Dec 17, 2006 at 7:12 pm
Thanks!
4 Lois Folk // Feb 17, 2007 at 6:25 am
John, it’s 30 days later. Can you provide and update on this.
Also, any thoughts on rent vs. buy if you can wait 12- 18 months to buy. Is it like the stockmarket., buy low sell high??
5 John L. Wake - Realtor // Feb 18, 2007 at 10:20 am
Lois,
Good idea. I’m a bit swamped right now with clients , the changes in the blog and another project. You just put it back near the top of my blog agenda.
And Lois, I’m sorry your comment didn’t show up right away. I want to figure out how to make it so that does’t happen with this new blog software.
Leave a Comment