Arizona Real Estate Notebook

5 responses so far ↓

• 1 henri // Jan 18, 2007 at 5:15 pm

  i guess this is what was expected for the december numbers (drop in inventory, low number of sales, mostly steady prices)

  january listing numbers are going to be the really interesting ones. i assume it takes a bit for the sales #s to catch up (since most closings are 30days out, no?). so if the prices change for the january sales it won’t show up till the february numbers come in (meaning mid-march??), or am i mistaken in how the numbers are collected?

• 2 John L. Wake // Jan 18, 2007 at 5:56 pm

  henri,

  The last listing point in the graphs is the number for January 15th. So we know listings didn’t explode in early January as some bubblebloggers expected.

  The fall in listings from Dec 15 to Jan 15 reaffirms a strong downward trend in the (still very high) number of listings.

  You are right about the 30+ day lag from contract to closing. So we really won’t know the prices being negotiated in January until they close in February (or later).

• 3 Cbass // Jan 19, 2007 at 5:34 am

  I keep an eye on the Zip Realty site and it looks like listings are heading back up for Phx. They are above the 51,000 mark again, while they had slipped down to the 48,000 region through the end of last year.

  Will the sales increase and forever link John with Nostradamus? My money is on no, but I am just a bubble head I guess.

• 4 Ken // Jan 19, 2007 at 8:56 am

  I also follow the Zip Realty numbers (although how accurate they are I don’t know…) and the Phx metro dropped by almost 2000 just days before Jan. 1.

  So the sudden bump as sellers re-list their property is to be expected.

  The question is will the inventory simply stagnate around the 45,000 -50,000 mark all year or will buyers return in 2007?

• 5 John L. Wake // Jan 19, 2007 at 9:03 am

  Cbass,

  Dec 15 to Jan 15 inventory did indeed decrease but I just checked and last week inventory increased about 4 percent according to one Realtor, Karl Stauffer, who follows the weekly inventory numbers closely.

  If inventory continued increasing at that pace it did last week, it looks like you would be right, Cbass.

  My educated guess, however, is that inventory will continue to fall and inventory will be in the “normal” range by mid-year.

  Home sellers shouldn’t get their hopes up, however. In a normal market the average home takes 5 to 7 months to sell.

  You still need a good Realtor working for you to get the most money in the least time. A well priced and well marketed home should be under contract in 30 to 60 days.

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