PMI Housing Appreciation Study – 3rd Qtr 2006

PMI, the private mortgage insurance company, comes out with a study every quarter that ranks the top 50 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) in the United States based on their assessment of the probability of a house price decline within 2 years.

The PMI Market Risk Index score for Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale increased significantly in the 3rd quarter as our appreciation rate declined from 31% (3rd Qtr 2005 over 2004) to 16% (3rd Qtr 2006 over 2005). Overall, however, metro Phoenix is still in the middle of the pack.

PMI Market Risk Index Score fore metro Phoenix AZ

Home Affordability

Income growth was strong in the 3rd quarter so that many markets saw slight improvements in home affordability as incomes grew faster than home prices. Home affordability is still a big problem and probably will be for a long time until incomes catch up with home prices.

Phoenix had the 3rd highest employment growth at 4.97%, however, appreciation was still strong from 3rd quater 2005 to 3rd quarter 2006 at 16%, so metro Phoenix affordability declined.

February 1, 2007 by Realtor John Wake

About The Author

John Wake

Born in Phoenix, trained as an economist and now a licensed Realtor, John uses hard data from the real estate market to help his clients -- buyers and sellers of residential real estate -- uncover their best choices for finding the right home or finding a buyer for their current home.

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