No video analysis this month.
I didn’t expect the inventory to increase in February. Oh, well.
The “frustrated sellers” won this round after losing a few to the “waiting buyers.”
I expect inventory to decline next month… but then again… that’s what I said last month. Forewarned is forearmed.
Metro Phoenix homes sales (closings) were weak in January as expected. They reflect the weak sales (contracts) in December.
The median home price stayed amazingly flat at $250,000.
8 responses so far ↓
1 Frank // Feb 19, 2007 at 10:36 am
Hi John, what are you basing these predictions on? inventory levels that is Thanks
2 Cbass // Feb 19, 2007 at 5:07 pm
NICE!!!
Sales going down, Inventory going up…
but yet prices are still holding steady.
How long can this last???
3 John L. Wake - Realtor // Feb 19, 2007 at 5:41 pm
Until next month.
4 John L. Wake - Realtor // Feb 20, 2007 at 1:44 am
Frank, That we are going into the high season for sales.
You can see from the graph that sales always increase in the first half of the year compared to the second half of the previous year.
An offsetting factor is that a lot of people wait and put their homes on the market early in the year when the market starts heating up.
That’s the battle that will determine whether the inventory goes up or down.
I think down but I was surprised by the increase in February so if it goes up again in March, I’ll have to re-evaluate.
I’m assuming that most people who were waiting for the holidays to be over and for the high season to begin before putting their home on the market have now already put their home on the market.
5 Frank // Feb 20, 2007 at 8:23 am
I agree, I believe this is the last spike that we’re going to see. All the patient sellers have, in my estimation, decided not to list their house last year and know have decided to start early knowing that homes are taking 3 months or more to sell. So, lets hope for the best, I know one thing, I’m not selling, I’m buying.
6 Russ // Feb 20, 2007 at 1:41 pm
Metro Phoenix housing inventory will be higher in March than in February, higher in April than in March, higher in May than in April, you get the picture.
7 Frank // Feb 20, 2007 at 2:43 pm
does this mean it will be higher in June than in May?
8 Cbass // Feb 20, 2007 at 7:09 pm
John,
Just for fun, what do you think will happen to the price of a median valley home if the inventory does continue to grow through the summer months reaching new all time highs while sales stay flat and the DOM stays the same? 0%, 1%, 5%, 10% drop by December?
Also, have you seen any evidence of this so called “tightening” in lending standards? This could be a real wild card in my personal opinion. There are so many stories about this subject in the media so I wonder what you see on the ground floor.
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