When newspapers Back East write about the real estate “bust” they love to feature Las Vegas.
I guess the gambling tie-in is irresistible for writers. The real estate in Vegas also seems to be hit about as hard as anywhere so it’s justifiable.
If you think things are slow here, you should check out the numbers for Las Vegas.
1 response so far ↓
1 Paul Cooper // Sep 10, 2007 at 5:39 am
Rest assure that what you see in Vegas you will see in Phoenix as well, as early as the first half of 2008. That is because the credit craziness of Vegas moved to Phoenix 1 year after. So the bulk of the resets will also happen 1 year after Vegas. I expect 2008 will be a slaughter year for Phoenix. We’ll end up being #1 in foreclosures, REOs, short sales, you name it, and in turn price depreciation. As I said before, we ain’t seen nothing yet. The worst is yet to come for Phoenix. And all those sellers who continue to catch a falling knife with multiple price cuts are going to regret not making a big cut from the beginning at 5-10% below the last comp. Because by mid 2008 that last comp will be 10-20% below where it is now.
If people trully want to sell they better start slashing prices now cause in 2008, they’d wish for 2007 prices, just like in 2007 they are wishing for 2006 (a lot of houses could have been sold in 2006 had they had the prices they are having now in 2007. In a falling market you have to get AHEAD of the price drop not behind it. You have to be 5-10% BELOW the last comp. And it is amazing to me how many people, both RE professionals and sellers don’t get that simple rule of a falling market)
BTW, I expect a bottom not to be formed till at least 2010 (and even then IMO we will bounce at the bottom for at least 2 years after that). So anyone that expects another quick boom is going to very much dissapointed. It could take another 20 years for peak 2005 prices to ever be seen again IMO.
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