The Case-Shiller Housing Index is the most accurate dataset of home prices, however, it is slow. The median home price, which is less accurate, comes out about 6 weeks before the Case-Shiller data.
Phoenix Housing Price Index
The price decline in October came in larger than I expected at 2.3% for metro Phoenix. Several areas saw large price declines, for example San Diego saw a 2.6% price decline in October.
From October 2006 to October 2007, metro Phoenix home prices have fallen 10.6%.
… but Phoenix is many markets
The median home price has fallen in most metro Phoenix zip codes but not necessarily all zip codes.
Here is 85086 which includes Anthem. (I don’t have data for Pinal county otherwise we could see some extreme price declines.)
We are looking at maybe a $50 per square foot decline in the median price per square foot from early 2006 to late 2007. That’s killer for home sellers.
For home buyers, notice that at about $150 per square foot, prices are similar to December 2004! This zip code could become very attractively priced in 2008. I’m not just talking about a few homes, there are alway some bargains available. The whole zip code could become generally attractive.
Okay, now let’s look at an “in-town” zip code, 85018, that hasn’t shown any clear price depreciation (although prices seem to be trying to figure out who they are right now). Notice, we are looking at Phoenix and an upscale area. 85018 includes Arcadia.
The hardest hit areas may be the first to see prices level off.
On the other hand, a few areas haven’t really seen a fall in prices at all.
{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }
AZ REOs 12.28.07 at 6:17 pm
John, it would be real interesting to see a comprehensive dataset of all areas. I know that would be a VERY daunting task- but maybe if we broke it up by larger areas or cities around the valley. I believe that certain areas of town in certain price ranges are doing pretty well, while others are doing poorly and pulling the overall averages down with them. What’s your thoughts on this?
John Wake - Real Estate 12.28.07 at 7:40 pm
I’ve already created the graphs like above for all Maricopa county zip codes. It was my December project.
I still have more work to incorporate them into the website.
P.S. Austin, for a lot of reasons it’s customary to pick one nickname and to stick with it.
AZ REOs 12.28.07 at 9:23 pm
Ahhh- sorry about that. I’ve testing some new things across various sites using different names. I’ve been pretty good about sticking with the same ones on the same sites- but looks like the cookies defaulted to this one instead. I’ll do better next time…
Frank 12.29.07 at 10:31 am
AZ REOs, Do you also respond on your own blog by the name of Cash. By the way, I tried your site on a relative’s computer in California, still ran into the same issue.
AZ REOs 12.29.07 at 3:34 pm
Yes, I am Cash on my blog. I have tried the site on multiple computers, both using IE 7 and FireFox with no problems at all. I don’t get it. I think it’s a problem with IE 6 hanging on the JavaScript or something. I wish I could test it out on your computer and see where the error is…
Frank 12.29.07 at 5:03 pm
AZ REOs,
all you need is a computer with IE6 since I managed to duplicate the issue on multiple computers with IE6. Many people have not updated to IE7 or FireFox and from experience most people who experience any problems with a website would not go back to it, the same goes for applications. To maximize traffic to your website you may have to address the issue.
AZ REOs 12.29.07 at 5:30 pm
ok- I don’t want to keep posting this to John’s blog here- but I appreciate all your help. I have a feeling it’s the template I am using for the blog. I’ll make some changes to the site this weekend, then contact you and see if it helps. Thanks Frank and John!