[Whoops! I accidentally erased the text. And it was brilliant stuff… although I couldn’t have been too brilliant if I accidentally erased it. That’s the problem with working at midnight.]
“MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.
6 responses so far ↓
1 Brian McMorris // Jan 18, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Prediction: the Phoenix (and many other) real estate market continues to decline throughout 2008 and into first half of 2009, at which time a newly elected national government will have had a chance to implement drastic measures to reverse the economic decline.
A median price of $160K remains the target based on historic price trends and affordability.
Joblessness will increase during a recession which will discourage buyers). A 25-30% peak to trough decline in the markets that increased the most, is widely predicted by economic experts (those that do not have a stake in the real estate market as does the NAR economist).
This real estate decline will go down as the 2nd worst after that of the 1930s.
2 Ken44 // Jan 18, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Prediction:
1. Inventory peaked in 2007 but will remain high until 2010. Prices in the Phx metro bottom out in the $200,000 range.
2. Interests rates will continue to be slashed.
3. Continues bail-out measures for homeowners, lenders ect. will be implemented.
4. Home prices in Southern Cal. remain well beyond affordability despite current ressission.
5. The Phx metro will continue to grow both largely due to the costs living in both Cal and back east.
3 Brian McMorris // Jan 19, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Ken44
Your guess is as good, or maybe better than mine.
I think the spring selling season will bring many more homes on the market as people that have to get out, try to do so. John has made the point previously that homes come off the market in the winter months and come back on in the Spring.
But, we agree on the trend, which is the main point. We will have to wait to see how far the trend travels.
4 mps // Jan 19, 2008 at 8:31 pm
I think 160 median is a very realistic prediction. 140 would not suprise me either. Job cuts coming.
5 Peter Fork // Jan 19, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Other interesting statistics on this site: http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrmember/ronwilczek Ron has statistics about SOLD houses, which may be closer to the reality than listing prices.
I wish prices could go down another 20%, to make normal people able to buy normal houses. It will be better for everybody.
As long as Phoenix have water and AC, people will keep on moving from other places. It is still cheap compared to Florida and California, and there is no earthquake or hurricane. I’m optimistic about the long term trend for the city, I just wish planners did something about urban sprawl.
6 Peter Fork // Jan 19, 2008 at 9:19 pm
The site is: realtytimes dot com slash rtmcrmember slash ronwilczek
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