Arizona Real Estate Notebook

Price (green line)

The median home price surprised me again with a significant decline, $6,600 from January to February, to $213,400.

I was thinking a few months ago that prices would fall to a point where they would level off for a few years while inflation would take care of the last bit of the correction. Now, it’s looking like the median home price may make the entire correction by the end of 2008.

Sales (blue line)

We saw a decent bounce in the number of homes sold from January to February but nothing special.

March home sales will be key. March will give us an idea of how the rest of the year will play out.

Listings (red line)

It looks like the decline in the median home price is finally starting to discourage home sellers.

The inventory of homes for sale increased less than 1% from mid-February to mid-March. Last year it increased over 4% the same month.

Conclusion

Last month I wrote, “Certainly given the intense downward momentum entering 2008, it’s possible we could see price declines this year similar to or larger than those in 2007.” Ditto.

“MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.