While running an MLS listings report for Anthem last weekend, I was stunned by the high number of homes under contract in Anthem.
ARIZONA 85086 - INCLUDES ANTHEM
MLS Resale, Single Family Homes Under Contract to Buyers on April 26, 2008: 165
Not all of those homes under contract are going to close and not all of the ones that will close will close in May.
Nevertheless, for 85086 which includes Anthem it looks like May 2008 could very well have the highest number of sales for a single month since 2005.
3 reasons for the increase in homes sales in Anthem;
1) Spring is the strongest season for home sales.
2) Canadians are buying a lot of homes in Arizona and many Canadians look for newer, inexpensive homes on the outskirts of metro Phoenix in places like Anthem. In addition, it’s looking like Canadians may buy later in the season than most - that they tend to buy during their spring not ours. (This is really just a semi-educated guess.)
3) Look at what has happened to home prices in 85086 (Anthem).
The median home price in 85086 is now similar to mid-2004!
It looks like lower home prices are finally starting to cause resale home sales to increase in Anthem and in 85086 overall.
Is this happening elsewhere?
I don’t have charts for Pinal county zip codes so I looked in the MLS and found that Johnson Ranch currently has a 6 month inventory of homes. Six months is in the range of a normal amount of inventory of homes for sale.
In Johnson Ranch, the average sold price in the last three months (since January 26) was $151,675 and the average sold home had 2,133 square feet.
6 responses so far ↓
1 Brian McMorris // Apr 27, 2008 at 12:16 pm
John, you seem to really be caught up in the idea that Canadians are somehow different / special, as compared with Americans when it comes to Valley home purchases. I know a few Canadians personally, and there really is no big difference from Americans who live in the northern States.
Canadians have long been a big factor in Florida real estate. The Boca Raton / Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando areas seem to have quite a few Canadian retirees (this is just persoanl observation based on my travels. No stats to back it up). Most retirees to Florida are from the East Coast, whether American or Canadian.
What is different this time, is that Alberta specifically, has had a great 10 year run in the energy market. There are a lot of people getting relatively rich there, including farmers selling lease-rights for drilling and getting royalties on gas/oil extraction. If you have been in Alberta in the winter, it isn’t much different than being in Nebraska, Iowa or Minnesota in the winter (where many American retirees to Phoenix come from).
So, it is not Canada per se, that is the source of new Valley buyers, but I bet Albertans, more precisely. Maybe your experience validates this conclusion. As long as Energy is strong, so will 2nd home buying by Albertans (and some Saskatchewanians) in the Valley.
And, I would guess if they are Calgary oil company executives, they will buy in Scottsdale or Paradise Valley. Why not? They would not limit themselves to lower priced houses just because they are from Canada.
2 John Wake - Real Estate // Apr 27, 2008 at 6:57 pm
About the Canadians, one client told me that he used to get 60 cents U.S. for 1 Canadian dollar. Now he gets about 1 U.S. dollar for 1 Canadian dollar. That is huge difference and may Canadians don’t expect it to last forever.
Alberta is probably the center of the interest but also B.C. I’ve gotten inquiries from Ontario west to B.C. and most of them are looking for inexpensive homes they can buy outright with cash.
For example, today I got an inquiry from Manitoba for homes in the $175,000 to $250,000 range. That’s pretty typical.
3 Arizona Real Estate Market at a Glance - Updated with April 2008 Data | Arizona Real Estate Notebook // May 15, 2008 at 10:32 pm
[…] about strong sales of existing homes in the outlying areas (where prices have fallen so much). See my post last most about the market tightening up in Anthem and Johnson Ranch. Now, were are seeing more hard numbers to support that […]
4 Mark W // May 22, 2008 at 9:33 am
I plan on renting my house in Peoria (75th Ave. & Cholla) which I purchased in November of 2005 for $265,000. I listed it on CraigsList for $1,300 per month with no signs in front of the house. I can’t believe the inquiries I received in just 5 days. Is the rental market that good out there?
5 joe // Jun 7, 2008 at 8:33 am
Anthem has 30% of its properties in foreclosure. Why are you not reporting this metric?
6 John Wake - Real Estate // Jun 7, 2008 at 8:46 am
You don’t have enough data already?
The effect of foreclosures will be captured in the median sold price per square foot.
Or to say it another way, the only effect of foreclosures that I really care about is their effect on the median price per square foot and I’m already measuring that.
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