Phoenix homes have depreciated 27% from their peak value in June 2006 according to my analysis of the Case-Shiller data.
Let’s say that another way that might paint a better picture for you; Phoenix homes were 36% more expensive in June 2006.
From the August 2007 mortgage meltdown to this latest data for March 2008, prices have fallen 20%, or almost 3% per month.
20% in 7 months. Wow!
The fall in prices lost a little steam in March according to the latest Case-Shiller numbers. From February to March, prices fell 3.44%, a bit less than the decline the previous month, 4.25%.
As always, the Case-Shiller index obscures the large differences within metro Phoenix sub-markets. This website, ArizonaRealEstateNotebook.com, is the best I’ve seen for allowing you to look at real estate trends by zip code and to tease out trends within the metro Phoenix area.
5 responses so far ↓
1 Philip // May 29, 2008 at 7:16 am
It’s official! Arizona Real Estate Notebook is THE trend setter in non-academic housing pricing by zip code. John, you’re always the “go to blog” when my clients ask for Phoenix area housing trends. Good going!
2 Brian McMorris // May 31, 2008 at 6:11 am
Usually self=promotion is a red flag. But in this special case, I agree. This is a heck of a website on real estate: reasonably objective, intelligent, obviously a ton of work and probably a lot of personal expense. So, I will add to the votes for “Best of Web”.
3 Brian McMorris // May 31, 2008 at 6:20 am
Oh, and lest I forget to make my monthly comment on “the trend”, the Case-Shiller (and the ASU data for that matter) graphically show a continuing decline that MAY be starting to decelerate.
With any luck (no major economic blowups), we will see the price settle back onto the long term 100 year price trend (not overshooting the trendline to the downside, as is typical in a bubble bursting). That long term trend can be observed on the above chart from years 2000-03. That trend has real estate appreciating at 4-5% per year, or about 1% after inflation (real return).
If this happens, it is a testament both to the high psychic value of real estate in the American mind, as well as fairly adept management of the bubble bursting by the Feds (lowering interest rates, backstopping the banking system and cajoling the banks into some measure of help for people in a bind on their mortgage).
4 Philip // May 31, 2008 at 8:19 am
Brian, for the record, my comment was not “self promoting”. I was introduced to the Arizona Real Estate Notebook by a client, probably 4 years ago. I have been a subscriber ever since. While going to “Broker” classes, I coincidentally met John Wake. True, we did develope a mutual friendship and respect and get togeher for lunch once in a blue moon with a couple other agents and brokers, but every one of my comments is from my head or heart, not from inside John’s business. Cheers to ya John. Heck of a website! Sign me, Philip-Broker/Owner 1-Clcik Realty and Property Management
5 Charles in Vegas // Jun 3, 2008 at 11:12 am
We are right there with you John. The Las Vegas and Phoenix market are almost mirrors, although the strip area usually defies trends that affect the rest of the valley.
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