Arizona economic outlook

I’m going to try to stay away from monitoring this crisis.

I have contacted Senator Kyle asking for a stop to all of this madness (probably won’t do any good). If others are upset by the current situation they should call or write their Senator.

I have talked to everyone I know about the bail out situation and feel I need to step back while forces beyond my control do what ever is to be done.

As a final thought: The stock market might seem like the most dramatic and interesting thing to watch, however, it is just a freak show. The real measure of the upcoming storm will be seen in treasuries. I am expecting the yields on treasuries to shoot upward, big time. The dollar might take a beating. Oil and other commodities could also go northward. It would be down right strange if mortgage interest rates did not rise sharply.

The up front money for the bail out is estimated as 700 billion dollars. The treasury has to flood the market over a short time frame to accumulate the needed ammunition. The immediate effect of such an action: increased yields on all forms of treasuries. This will then cause all sorts of knock-on effects.

Take good care, and remember what is truly important in life.

I agree about those that have a large down payment (i.e. investors), but even as someone that has an excellent credit rating the market has been causing me to pull my hair out as a first time home buyer.

My wife and I have been shopping for 2.5 months for houses and every time a good deal comes up, it gets snatched away by some other offer. The first time we didn’t even get a chance to do a best and final, and the 2nd time it was a cash offer that even though we had a higher bid, the bank didn’t look at the bottom line.

I’m getting awfully tired of house shopping, between the months it’s taking the bank to get back to us on short sales, and the foreclosures that are either completely trashed to the point we couldn’t get a loan on them even if we wanted them, or a good deal but have been sold before we even get a chance to look at it (again, investors).

Sorry for the rant here, but the deals that I’ve seen have been truly few and far between. People are still expecting 2005/2006 prices for some places. It may look rosy on the outside, but down in the trenches it’s really becoming frustrating. We’re taking our time here, but we are getting to the point of impatience and we may just have to settle.

I certainly am learning the market John, and honestly, this site has been one of my best resources for information. The East Valley trends you’ve plotted out (and the recent flexmls information) and the updated sales information gives us good insight into the areas we’ve been looking to purchase in.

Absolutely love the site and the insight that posters have in here. I find more intelligent posting in here than many other real estate sites, and it is certainly a welcoming breath of fresh air.

Keep up the great work!