Catherine Reagor looks at a score card for the Phoenix residential real estate market.
1) “The number of resales on the market falls below a seven-month supply.”
Nope. Not there yet, however, several zip codes in metro Phoenix have less than 7 months supply.
2) “Home sales need to stop slowing.”
Yep. Sales of resale homes are way up (although about half of them are bank-owned, and sales are still dragging in many areas).
3) “New-home permits must fall.”
No problem there. New-home permits in October were the lowest level in more than 25 years, according to RL Brown’s Phoenix Housing Market Letter.
4) “Mortgage-purchase applications increase.”
I’m not crazy about this point because it can vary a lot from week to week.
5) “Thirty-year mortgage rates drop to 6 percent.”
We’re just under 6 percent.
6) “Affordability must improve dramatically.”
Jackpot! Resale homes have dropped 38% in value from the June 2006 peak according to Case-Shiller numbers.
7) “At least one major home builder goes away.”
No problem there. And expect more to fold.
John Wake
Born in Phoenix, trained as an economist and now a licensed Realtor, John uses hard data from the real estate market to help his clients -- buyers and sellers of residential real estate -- uncover their best choices for finding the right home or finding a buyer for their current home.
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