Most numbers suggest we are approaching a bottom for the Phoenix area as a whole (although some areas are probably a long way from bottoming out). The one big counter-indicator was the large increase in foreclosure notices in March.
Look at the Case-Shiller Index for Phoenix below.
Home prices in 2009 in Phoenix will absolutely NOT fall like they did in 2008.
I believe we are likely to see this spring a dramatic decline in the rate of decline of home prices in metro Phoenix. My worst case scenario this afternoon is that the cycle bottom would be next January for home prices in metro Phoenix as a whole.
There is no doubt we are already long past the bottom of the cycle for the number of homes sold per month.
Now, we are just waiting for the increased sales to bring down the housing inventory enough that home prices begin to firm up. I believe we will start seeing that in some areas this spring.
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Guessing 04.04.09 at 3:42 pm
My guess which is as good is your is that we still haven’t seen a bottom in Phoenix real estate. There is just too much pending supply as well as dark supply currently sitting as rentals. You need the economy to turn first before you will see an uptick in realestate prices. Unemployment is still rising even with all the gov’t “adjustments” to that number - that is the indicator that drives the pace at which we come out of this economic downturn. A word of caution on using seasonally adjusted numbers - a positive number can really be negative if it has typically been seasonally adjusted upward.
Just Guessing along with you because no knows..
ken44 04.04.09 at 7:46 pm
Although the inventory seems to be dropping fast my guess is the inventory still needs to fall a good 10,000 more before prices will begin to hold. But with foreclosures still entering the market every month at a healthy clip a 10,000 drop may be difficult to reach this year.
Todd 04.05.09 at 7:29 am
We have been approached about doing an “Illinois Plan” type land trust deal where we transfer ownership to a land trust in order to sell a home at its full value. Your opinion of this type of transaction? It sounds too good to be true and sends up some red flags for me. Thoughts?
John Wake 04.05.09 at 8:51 am
Todd, I don’t see how putting a property in a trust can help you sell it. You can sell the property at “full value” today without any machinations and take your money and run but you may not like what that full value is.
I’m interested in what they are proposing. Tell me more. Send me an email at john at arizonarealestatenotebook.com.
shad 04.09.09 at 9:45 pm
Money Magazine says another 19.7% drop is in store for Phoenix between now and March 2010.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_realestate/2009/index.html