Arizona Real Estate Notebook

(See recent posts on Phoenix Case-Shiller Home Price Index.)

Phoenix Arizona home prices fell 4.7% from January to February according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Phoenix, Arizona.

That was a large decline, however, more recent data from other sources suggests prices may have NOT fallen between March and April. We won’t know if the Case-Shiller data substantiates that until Case-Shiller’s April data is released in late June.

Time Machine

The February 2009 Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Phoenix, Arizona was where it was 7 years earlier in February 2002. (Ah, remember when people thought you were golden if you bought at 2002 prices?)

On the other hand, Phoenix home prices have fallen 51% from the peak in June 2006.

Below are my comments from last December and they still hold true.

We probably won’t see prices of Phoenix homes strengthen until February or March (and those Case-Shiller numbers won’t be published until 2 months later). I’m guessing that by June there will be a lot of buzz about Phoenix home prices having bottomed out reflecting strong Spring sales and, in fact, that may be true in some areas of metropolitan Phoenix.

As always, the Case-Shiller index obscures the large differences within metro Phoenix sub-markets. This web site, Arizona Real Estate Notebook, is the best I’ve seen for allowing you to look at real estate trends by zip code and to tease out trends within metropolitan Phoenix.

Phoenix Home Price Index

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag.