Starting to Level Off
Looking at the graph, sure you can’t see much of a trend but homes in greater Phoenix “only” depreciated 2.3% from March to April. Whoo Hoo! Pop the champagne.
You have to remember that from February to March, Phoenix home prices fell 4.7% so, what the heck, I’m calling 2.3% “starting to level off.”
Home buyers have had tons of good news for many months so I think it’s good that we show home sellers and home owners that the end may be near… um… maybe that’s not the best expression to use here.
Great News for Arizona Home Buyers
On the other hand, if you are a buyer, metro Phoenix home prices haven’t been this low since July 2000. Yep, that’s nearly 8 years ago. And I can remember when buyers thought it would be grand if they could only pay 2004 prices.
(On the other hand, if you are a homeowner and you bought your home after July 2000, that means, on average, your home is worth less than you paid. Boy, that hurts.)
The Mythical “Bottom”
I don’t know if Phoenix area home prices are going to bottom out this summer but I certainly expect to see an elbow in that graph when we get the May and June data. After that, I expect “gentle” price declines until we reach the bottom, say, next January.
(If interest rates take off, I reserve the right to revisit all my guesses.)
Added
I decided to throw in a trendline like I did in a previous report on Case-Shiller Phoenix numbers.
If only the market had stayed on that trendline! Many, many thousands of families in Phoenix would have avoided a tremendous amount of pain.
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Concerned Citizen 07.01.09 at 11:14 pm
I’ve read this from a few sources now over the last few months:
The next wave of foreclosures; Alt-A and Option ARMs
http://www.freep.com/article/20090621/BUSINESS07/90620044/1020
MPS 07.02.09 at 3:21 pm
There’s no telling how many of these loans are out there. Many of the borrowers may have swallowed the reality pill and walked already. Who knows? Not only do the option Arms adjust when interest rates go up but they can slowy add to the priciple balance too. That means you’re under water because of price declines and extra underwater because of the added principle. If you’re stuck in one of these things the only wise decision is to stop paying and don’t answer the door when someone knocks.