Phoenix Home Prices Stop Falling!
In fact, greater Phoenix home prices APPRECIATED 1.1% between May and June!
Case-Shiller hadn’t shown a single month with any appreciation in Phoenix since June 2006, that’s 3 whole years ago folks. Quite a drought!
The last time Case-Shiller showed home price appreciation this large for Phoenix was in November 2005.
Historically, 1.1% appreciation is quite large for one month in Phoenix. For example, in the decade of the 1990’s, not a single month showed home price appreciation of 1.0% or higher according to my analysis of Case-Shiller data.
Great News for Arizona Home Buyers
Phoenix home prices could drift lower this autumn but on the other hand May 2009 could end up being the bottom of the current home price cycle. Phoenix home prices in May 2009 were the same as in June 2000 according to the Case-Shiller Index.
(On the other hand, if you bought your home after June 2000, that means, on average, your home is worth less than when you bought it. Yikes!)
John’s Take 2 Months Ago
I just re-read my post two months ago on Case-Shiller;
I don’t know if Phoenix area home prices are going to bottom out this summer but I certainly expect to see an elbow in that graph when we get the May and June data. After that, I expect “gentle” price declines until we reach the bottom, say, next January.
Well, we got the elbow. Now, let’s see what happens to prices the rest of the year.
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azrob 08.29.09 at 6:51 pm
well, “cash for clunker homes $8K” ends in two months, lets see how sales have been going when other stimuli ended:
1. cash for clunkers: ended, car dealerships are now empty… will have some numbers in a month.
2. $10k from california (on top of the $8k) to buy a new home ended, new home sales fell off a cliff.
Not looking good… Well, since we now have 50,000 homes in foreclosure process, I’m sure a sudden drop of sales will be just fine… case shiller well below 100 short of HUGE government intervention next year.
Paul 09.06.09 at 9:49 am
I agree. Not only for Phoenix but other parts of the country.
John Wake 09.06.09 at 12:33 pm
It’ll be interesting to see how much the $8,000 cannibalizes future sales, although I suspect Congress will extend the program once they return to Washington so we may not know for many months what happens when the program ends.
In those zip codes in Phoenix where the median price has been well below 2000 prices, the number of sales has taken off. A few zip codes could clear a lot more supply because prices are so low that homes are flying off the shelf.
If the entire market went to those pre-2000 prices, azrob’s prediction would be fulfilled but the markets would clear at those low prices even with another wave of foreclosures.