The fewer new homes built, the better. Those crazy greedy Arizona homebuilders had a starring role in the boom and bust in Arizona home prices.
The Greater Phoenix panel confirmed their second quarter projection that 2009 should be the bottom of the cycle for single-family permits, declining to about 7,800 units, which is down from about 12,600 last year. For next year, however, the panel forecasts that permits will increase more than 40 percent, totaling about 11,200…
… the panel forecasts that 2011 will produce an additional 45 percent increase in permits, more than 16,200 units. While this is a big increase in percentage terms, 2011 permits will reach only about 25 percent of the previous peak and less than half of the demographic demand during times of normal population flows.
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Whizzer 10.14.09 at 11:14 am
Next year’s residential projections seem reasonable, as being a bounce of the bottom. Forecasting obviously not without risks.
But those commercial numbers are ugly. In another article which I found a bit eye popping was not only the rates of commercial vacancy, but the increase in base, or total developed space and actual footage needing to be absorbed. Daunting.
Whatever the meager benefit from increased residential, will be way over shadowed by the drag from commercial. Sorry to say.
John Wake 10.14.09 at 12:23 pm
Good point. When residential construction tanked, commercial was booming and picked up a lot of the employment slack. Now residential will have a weak rebound while commericial is tanking. At least residential constuction will be hiring which changes the psychology, for whatever that’s worth.
ken44 10.15.09 at 12:27 pm
Many of the homes closer-in, built during the bubble era and lost to foreclosures were bought by investors who no doubt will be placed them back on the market in the coming years.
Why would anyone want to live on the outskirts of the Pbx metro when there will be plenty of deals to be found much closer in?
I could understand an increase in residential construction if the Phx metro population growth were expected to substantially increase but I’ve not read about this happening anytime soon.
chad s 10.19.09 at 11:11 am
yeah, those greedy homebuilders really screwed up the situation. the realtors on the other hand who couldn’t wait to sell 28,000 homes a year have no responsibility, or the mortgage brokers, or the underwriters, or the under financed buyers, or the etc.etc etc………
John Wake 10.19.09 at 11:50 am
chad s,
Agreed!
(especially not the Realtors and Mother Theresa)