Dr. Karl Guntermann at ASU just updated his Repeat Sale Index through July 2009.
However, for the first time since March 2007 the change in the index indicates that prices increased, if only slightly, from the previous month in all regions and most cities. The market wide increase from June to July was 2 percent and houses in the lower and higher priced segments of the market also increased by an average of 2 percent. The total decline in prices from the mid-2006 peak is 48 percent, which breaks down to 60 and 37 percent declines for the lower and higher priced houses, respectively. This is in contrast to the last major decline from 1989 to 1992 where the upper portion of the market declined much more (13 percent) than the lower portion (4 percent).
The overall median price for sales that were included in the July index was $125,000, up from $122,000 in June. Preliminary median prices for August and September were $126,500 and $130,000, respectively.
John’s Take
(The graph above was created by John Wake of HomeSmart using ASU data. The graph is not included in Guntermann’s report.)
- Wow! The price increases are stronger than what I expected after looking at median home price changes. Guntermann’s data looks at home price appreciation directly while the median home price is just a proxy for actual appreciation.
The 5-year home price roller coaster ride is over.
Well, for metro Phoenix as a whole, anyway. Home prices in some areas of metro Phoenix have likely bottomed out already while home prices in other areas will likely continue to fall.
Also see this Business Journal article.
{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
Whizzer 10.22.09 at 9:02 pm
Nice graph. It was your zip graphs, that I used to decide that 2003-04 was my base line, and I’m sticking to it … which is not incompatible with your view.
I dig Christina Romer, not because of her slant, but because she can boil things down to where I can understand. Per her latest pronouncements, as I have previously suggested: Look out in 2011.
One more bubble to deal with and maybe just as scary as the others:
the Debt Bubble. Tricky navigation ahead.