All 124 zip code real estate charts available in the right-hand column have now been updated through DECEMBER 2009 with the number of home sales, the median home price and the median home price per square foot.
Video Comments - Phoenix median home prices by zip code through December 2009
Phoenix home PRICE trends - Generally flat
For the last few months the median home price has been generally flat in most zip codes in the Phoenix area. In some areas the price trend is clearly up.
Here’s the problem.
Some Phoenix area zip codes with flat median home prices still have below normal home sales.
Sure, home sales in the last few months of 2009 were significantly higher than in the last few months of 2008. That’s good news for home values
But still, the number of homes sold in the last few months of 2009 in many Phoenix area zip codes was significantly below a “normal” year like 2002. Until I see home sales in a zip code in the “normal” ballpark, I worry that prices are still too high to clear the market.
Certainly, the median home price in most zip codes is near or past the bottom but we could see more declines in some zip codes.
Other Phoenix home price downside risk factors include;
- A huge “shadow inventory” of homes in the foreclosure process in Maricopa County which haven’t been foreclosed on yet, and
- Scheduled option ARM mortgage interest rate increases which will trigger even more foreclosures.
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Rich 01.31.10 at 12:20 am
There is something I find interesting in your zip code graphs which I’ve never heard you (or any other analyst for that matter) comment on and I’m interested in your thoughts:
While sales prices are (temporarily?) flattening out or even rising, in most zip codes the list price - in particular list$ / ft^2 has continued to fall. Indeed in many areas it has shown little if any signs of even slowing it’s decline - the list$/sf has been falling at a steady rate over the past year that the graph covers. This is strange given that sales prices have leveled or increased for many months now.
In fact, this is just the opposite of what one would expect during a period of inventory clearing. The well-priced houses should be selling off leaving a larger percentage of over-priced houses on the market. And hence the list price of houses still on the market should be increasing faster than sales price.
The standard explanation would be that sellers are getting more realistic in determining list price, but I don’t think that explains it. Also, perhaps more and more unrealistic=overpriced sellers are giving up and pulling their houses off the market (more shadow inventory?) — perhaps, but one would think sellers would be coming back onto the market with all these headlines about an improving market.
Anyway, it’s true that sales price is the best indicator of “the market” but I think that list price is giving us a clue that something unusual is still going on in the Phoenix market.
Erik 03.20.10 at 12:13 am
I grew up in 85028 zip code.
The area is by far the best place in all of Arizona.
Biltmore Fashion Park, Scottsdale Fashion Square, Desert Ridge,
Cheesecake Factory, The Grand Luxe, everything is close by. The best
shopping this side of the Bal Harbour shops in N. Miami, and east of
Rodeo Drive.