Arizona Real Estate Notebook

All 124 zip code real estate charts available in the right-hand column have now been updated through DECEMBER 2009 with the number of home sales, the median home price and the median home price per square foot.

Video Comments – Phoenix median home prices by zip code through December 2009

Phoenix home PRICE trends – Generally flat

For the last few months the median home price has been generally flat in most zip codes in the Phoenix area. In some areas the price trend is clearly up.

Here’s the problem.

Some Phoenix area zip codes with flat median home prices still have below normal home sales.

Sure, home sales in the last few months of 2009 were significantly higher than in the last few months of 2008. That’s good news for home values

But still, the number of homes sold in the last few months of 2009 in many Phoenix area zip codes was significantly below a “normal” year like 2002. Until I see home sales in a zip code in the “normal” ballpark, I worry that prices are still too high to clear the market.

Certainly, the median home price in most zip codes is near or past the bottom but we could see more declines in some zip codes.

Other Phoenix home price downside risk factors include;

• A huge “shadow inventory” of homes in the foreclosure process in Maricopa County which haven’t been foreclosed on yet, and
• Scheduled option ARM mortgage interest rate increases which will trigger even more foreclosures.