Arizona Real Estate Notebook

Feeling too chipper today!

Nouriel Roubini makes a cogent argument here but keep in mind that in the spring of 2009 his economic predictions were way off, way too pessimistic.

Also keep in mind that Roubini is giving a global scenario and Arizona, although swimming in that ocean, is unique.

My assumption is that Arizona will be one of the first economies to rebound… whenever that may be. I’m thinking sooner rather than later.

The global slowdown – already evident in second-quarter data for 2010 – will accelerate in the second half of the year. Fiscal stimulus will disappear as austerity programs take hold in most countries. Inventory adjustments, which boosted growth for a few quarters, will run their course. The effects of tax policies that stole demand from the future – such as incentives for buyers of cars and homes – will diminish as programs expire. Labor-market conditions remain weak, with little job creation and a spreading sense of malaise among consumers.

The likely scenario for advanced economies is a mediocre U-shaped recovery, even if we avoid a W-shaped double dip. In the US, annual growth was already below trend in the first half of 2010 (2.7% in the first quarter and estimated at a mediocre 2.2% in April-June). Growth is set to slow further, to 1.5% in the second half of this year and into 2011.