Arizona Real Estate Notebook

See the latest trends in actual home price appreciation – not median home prices – through May 2010 using data from Karl Guntermann of ASU.

It’s nice to see someone else think we won’t see a double dip in Phoenix home prices overall. I was feeling a little bit out on a limb there.

Highlights of ASU Repeat Sale Index Report

• “… it is likely that house prices throughout the metro area will remain essentially flat for the next twelve months.”
• “… there also is no evidence that house prices will resume a downward trend, contrary to some published reports.”
• “Lower priced houses… It appears that this segment of the housing market, which was hard hit during the downturn, will see price increases throughout the rest of 2010 but at gradually slower rates.”
• “… the higher priced segment of the market is likely to show small declines on an annual basis through the rest of 2010 with prices flat for the first part of 2011.”
• “Prices in the Central, Northwest and Southwest regions have increased from May 2009 to May 2010.”
• “In terms of total declines from the 2006 peak, the Southwest is down the most, 58 percent, but even in the Northeast prices have dropped 36 percent.”

About the Data. Carl Guntermann at ASU uses a modified Case-Shiller statistical technique to look at home price appreciation within metropolitan Phoenix. Case-Shiller only looks a home price appreciation in metropolitan Phoenix as a whole. I (John Wake) created the graph above based on Dr. Guntermann’s data.