Arizona Real Estate Notebook

Karl Guntermann at Arizona State University came out with his latest Repeat Sale Index (ASU-RSI) for metro Phoenix. Guntermann’s index is the Phoenix equivalent of the famous Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Both indices measure home price appreciation (and depreciation) better than just looking at the median home price.

… house prices turned down slightly in August (-2 percent) compared to August 2009… The ASU-RSI has been relatively stable for over a year which suggests that changes in house prices will be moderate going forward unless there are dramatic changes in the Phoenix economy or housing market. [emphasis mine]

I can certainly sign off on Guntermann’s quote that I bolded for Phoenix home prices as a whole. However, be aware that;

Higher priced houses continued their pattern of small annual declines which began last spring.

Double Dip in Phoenix?

The overall median price for sales that were included in the June index was $132,500 and the preliminary figure for August is $122,000. Beginning in June 2009, median prices have fluctuated between $122,000 and $135,000… It will take another month or two of declines before it will be clear that prices have again resumed a downward trend.

I don’t expect to see a double dip in Phoenix home prices – meaning significantly lower lows – but you never know.

Later, I’ll post the monthly chart I run based on Guntermann’s index for several Phoenix area cities.