Arizona Real Estate Notebook

(See recent posts on Phoenix Case-Shiller Home Price Index.)

Case-Shiller released data today for Phoenix that splits the price index into three price level indices.

This Case-Shiller index is the best data available for estimating actual appreciation (or depreciation). The most current data is through September 2011.

Tier Breakpoints (September 2011)

• Low Tier – Up to $94,963
• Middle Tier – $94,963 – $167,973
• High Tier – $167,973 and up

My comments on last month’s release still hold.

All 3 home price levels tanked the last 6 months of last year after the $8,000 first-time home price tax break ended in June. I don’t expect to see anything like that to happen again this year.

Prices could drift lower the second half of this year but I’m thinking more “drift” than “fall” and certainly not “tank.”

The stronger home prices are from September through January (more accurately, the less weak prices are from September through January), the stronger home sale prices will be next February through June.