Arizona Economic Outlook for 2014

From the 50th annual Economic Forecast Luncheon co-sponsored by Arizona State University’s W. P. Carey School of Business and JPMorgan Chase.

“We expect 2014 to be the eighth year in a row for subpar growth in Arizona, which was hit harder than most states in the recession,” said Research Professor Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School of Business. “While growth is slow compared to past recoveries, we are making good progress compared to other states. Arizona jumped all the way up from the No. 49 state for job growth in 2010 to No. 8 in 2012 and No.7 by October of this year. The long-term economic outlook here is positive.”

Among the Arizona expectations from McPheters for next year:

  • Employment growth could rise from 2.1 percent this year to 2.4 percent in 2014.
  • Personal income could go up from 4 percent this year to 5.4 percent next year.
  • Population growth may jump from 1.4 percent to 1.5 percent.
  • Retail sales will likely fall from 7.6 percent this year to 6.5 percent next year.