Arizona Real Estate Notebook

EXCLUSIVE - Data table created by John Wake, Associate Broker, HomeSmart Real Estate, from ASU data.

None of the 14 cities ASU follows showed a higher median home price in September than compared to the previous September. Four of the 14 cities showed median price decreases of more than 10%.

The median home price for all of Greater Phoenix declined to $250,000 for September compared to $255,000 in August and $265,000 in July. The median home price, therefore, has fallen 6% from July to September. Last year the drop in median home price leveled off after September so it will be interesting to see what happens in October this year. The median price in September 2006 was $256,900.

Previous price charts
Archive of price charts

[Read more →]

I’ve been harping for a while now about the Phoenix real estate market really being many sub-markets, that some sub-markets are doing far better than others. Unfortunately, I didn’t any data to quantify the differences.

Now, you gotta check out the Arizona Republic interactive charts on Phoenix real estate price increases by zip code.

You can’t miss the huge differences between zip codes but don’t forget huge differences will also exist within each zip code.

Be very careful how you interpret this chart.

Let’s say a zip code had a large price decrease last year. Does that make it more or less likely that zip code will have a large price decrease next year?

It could go either way.

It could be the downward trend will continue next year or it could be that prices have already “corrected” in that zip code and it will outperform the average zip code next year.

Similarly, a zip code that did great last year may under-perform the average zip code next year. So, be careful.

Don’t miss clicking on “details” in the right hand side of the charts on azcentral.com. That is, to see the “details” you have to click the link above to go to azcentral.com.

*The 2007 data include sales through August.

[Read more →]

When they’re right, they’re right.

The largest paper in Canada, the Toronto Star, has this article on real estate bargains in the United States.

Sure, a shopping trip to Buffalo might net you a deal or two now that the loonie has soared to parity with the U.S. dollar, but after a prolonged slump in the U.S. real estate market, the hottest stateside bargains for Canadians might be retirement and vacation properties in Florida and Arizona.

If you want to compare Florida and Arizona real estate, Canadians should be sure to price out the cost of the unfair Florida property taxes which discriminate against newcomers, and Florida’s extremely high homeowners insurance costs.

Economist Noah Blackstein, writing last week for thestreet.com, says Canadians might be wise to move quickly, now that the Canadian dollar is at par.

“While U.S. real estate prices may have more downside, I would seize the opportunity of parity and buy now, and enjoy for the rest of your life,” Blackstein says.

Arizona homes are 12% cheaper for Canadians than they were in January! That’s absolutely amazing!

Canadians might want to take advantage of this great exchange rate while it lasts and buy that Arizona home they’ve been dreaming of for years, right now before the exchange rate changes.

The article talks a lot about real estate prices in Florida and also mentions Arizona real estate prices. If you are interested in reading about metro Phoenix real estate prices, there is no better place to be than right here at this geeky little website, Arizona Real Estate Notebook.

If you are looking for a home in the Scottsdale area, please give me a call. I was born and raised in Phoenix and would love to show it off to you. I would be honored to represent you in your real estate purchase.

If you are looking for a home in another area of metro Phoenix, I can refer you to a very good real estate agent in your area of interest. Please let me refer you to someone I know and trust.

[Read more →]

Thanks to an upgrade by the vendor from whom I buy the raw data on Maricopa county home sales, Home Sale News email newsletters of homes for sale and homes sold now have data that is only 2 weeks old!

Absolutely amazing!

Nobody has more recent data.

[Read more →]

Are there more or fewer homes for sale in your zip code?

Is the median list price increasing or decreasing in your zip code?

For all the numbers people out there who love this blog, it’s Christmas. We have more numbers!

Today’s issues of Home Sale News were the first to link to individual web pages showing 1) the median list price, 2) the inventory of homes for sale, and 3) the average days on market for unsold homes, for each zip code in Maricopa county.

The pages are also available from a link in the sidebar of this blog as show above.

The Data

These Listing Trends charts should be taken with a big grain of salt. As mentioned near the bottom of each zip code Listings Trends page, the graphs are not based directly on official MLS data. The data is gathered or “scrapped” from Realtor.com by the company I buy the graphs from. Realtor.com, however, uses official MLS data.

This indirect process adds a lot of opportunities for errors. For example, in one zip code I checked the inventory number in the chart was 12% higher than the real number. And I don’t trust their average days on market numbers yet. These charts, unfortunately, are not available with official MLS data.

Nevertheless, the numbers should be similar and certainly the charts should give us an idea of whether an MLS listing trend is going up, down or sideways, and that’s probably about as far as you want to trust the charts.

discoveries

It’s been fun starting to explore these charts. The biggest surprise for me so far has been Sun City West.

The median home price in Sun City West has been absolutely pummeled. Sun City West has often had the biggest year over year decline of any city in metro Phoenix.

Now, is seems there is a real possibility that Sun City West may be past the worst of it.

Check out the 85375 (Sun City West) inventory of homes listed for sale.

Historically, U.S. real estate markets that were most overpriced tended to correct more quickly than less overpriced markets. The same effect may happen within the sub-markets of metro Phoenix. That is, those sub-markets that fall the fastest like Queen Creek and Maricopa may be the first to recover. Hey, it could happen.

Merry Christmas to all of the numbers people who read this blog!

[Read more →]

The Case-Shiller index of home prices is the best measure of home price appreciation when looking at entire metropolitan areas in the United States. It doesn’t measure appreciation in smaller areas such as cities or zip codes, however.

The Case-Shiller home price index for metro Phoenix fell 0.8% in July and was 7.3% below the peak home price in June 2006.

Previous post on the Case-Shiller home price index for Phoenix here.

As always, remember that Phoenix is made up of many sub-markets with some sub-markets doing much better than others.

To take advantage of this Arizona real estate market, you want to hire a real estate agent who thoroughly understands your goals as well as the Phoenix real estate sub-markets. Please feel free to call and let’s talk about your real estate objectives.

[Read more →]

EXCLUSIVE - Graphic presentation of ASU data created by your favorite Realtor, John L. Wake, Associate Broker, HomeSmart Real Estate.

Northeast Valley

Scottsdale Arizona homes for sale now

Southeast Valley

Chandler Arizona homes for sale now

Gilbert Arizona homes for sale now

Mesa Arizona homes for sale now

Tempe Arizona homes for sale now

Phoenix

Phoenix Arizona homes for sale now

Northwest Valley

El_Mirage Arizona homes for sale now

Glendale Arizona homes for sale now

Sun City Arizona homes for sale now

Sun City West Arizona homes for sale now

Surprise Arizona homes for sale now

Southwest Valley

Avondale Arizona homes for sale now

Goodyear Arizona homes for sale now

Graphs based on data published by ASU’s Realty Studies which is affiliated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. I may occasionally make an error when graphing the ASU data.

ASU did not publish data for March, June, September or December until 2006.

[Read more →]

EXCLUSIVE - Table of ASU data created by your favorite Realtor, John L. Wake, Associate Broker, HomeSmart Real Estate.

All 14 cities we follow showed median home price decreases between August 2006 to August 2007. However, condos/townhouses in two cities, Phoenix and Tempe, showed median price increases.

The median home price for all of Great Phoenix declined from $262,500 in August 2006 to $255,000 in August 2007, a 3% decline. The median price in July 2007 was $265,000, so August 2007 shows a 4% decline from July.

Previous price charts
Archive of price charts

[Read more →]

EXCLUSIVE - Table of ASU data created by your favorite Realtor, John L. Wake, Associate Broker, HomeSmart Real Estate.

Only Scottsdale, Chandler and Phoenix showed positive, although small, changes in their median home prices versus a year ago. However, since Phoenix and Scottsdale accounted for 35% of area home sales in July the median home price for all of Greater Phoenix year-over-year was flat going from $264,900 in July 2006 to $265,000 in July 2007.

Even though Phoenix and Scottsdale were stable, the median home price in El Mirage, Goodyear and Avondale were significantly lower than a year ago.

Previous price charts
Archive of price charts

[Read more →]

“At a national level, declines in annual home price returns are showing no signs of a slowdown or turnaround,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC.

Metro Phoenix home price appreciation was -5.5% from May 2006 to May 2007. Not killer… but… I would guess the next 12 months will see more of the same or worse.

Of course some areas will do much better and others much worse than average. Buy smart.

[Read more →]

The Tribune has a nice piece on changes in the inventory of Valley homes for sale.

In the first six months of 2007, 20,662 single-family home permits were issued, a 24 percent drop from the same period last year.

Good! Builders were still living in La La Land in the first 6 months of 2006.

Brown recently adjusted his five-year forecast downward, anticipating that new home building permits will not reach pre-boom levels of about 44,000 annually until 2011.

Does that mean the Brown thinks it will take 4 years for builders to work through their current over-supply problem! These home builders are not a very dynamic group. I imagine some will go out of business which will shorten that time period.

Despite the slump in sales, builders began ramping up production on speculative homes earlier this year, likely anticipating buyers returning to the market, said Ben Sage with research firm Metrostudy.

ARGHH!

That hasn’t happened.

Duh!

Still, roughly a dozen new builders have jumped into the market in the past year, said Sage, who heads up the Houston-based company’s Arizona division.

ARGHH!

“That’s the good news for Phoenix,” he said.

What’s good about it?

Sellers are competing with investors and builders, who are trying to off load homes, said real estate agent Jason Hall with RE/MAX Achievers in Chandler. Builders are getting cancellations, which adds to the housing inventory, Hall said. They can afford to cut prices by tens of thousands of dollars, while homeowners can’t, he said.

“They’re the ones with the deep pockets,” he said. For now, sellers need to keep lowering their prices, and if they can’t, they shouldn’t sell, Hall said. “Pay the bill and keep making the drive,” he said.

Sad but true.

The last line of the graph is wacked, or at least I can’t figure it out.

Nevertheless, it appears that home builders are pulling several hundred more new home permits than new homes that have sold. When the permits are fewer than the sales, Arizona home builders will be headed in the right direction.

It’s stunning at this late date that Arizona home builders are still out of touch with reality.

[Read more →]

ASU’s Jay Butler on Phoenix home prices.

The median price of a home in the Phoenix area used to be about 90 percent of the National Association of Realtors’ national median price, he said.

Prices began rising during a hot housing market in early 2005 and, during the past year and a half, have settled at about $260,000. The national median is $219,000.

[Read more →]

EXCLUSIVE - Table of ASU data created by your favorite Realtor, John L. Wake, Associate Broker, HomeSmart Real Estate.

For all of Greater Phoenix the median home price year-over-year was down 1.4% going from $267,000 in June 2006 to $263,145 in June 2007.

Sun City West and Sun City are the big winners in the falling prices contest, down 16% and 14% from a year ago. Last June was the peak for the median home price in Sun City West, however, so that comparison is a bit misleading. It’s not misleading to say the median price of single family homes in Sun City West and Sun City have fallen more in the last year than in any other city listed below.

Previous price charts
Archive of price charts

[Read more →]

EXCLUSIVE - Table of ASU data created by your favorite Realtor, John L. Wake, Associate Broker, HomeSmart Real Estate.

For all of Greater Phoenix the median home price year-over-year was down slightly going from $265,000 in May 2006 to $262,000 in May 2007.

11 of the 14 cities below had lower prices, 2 cities were flat, however the largest city by far, Phoenix, was up 2% which kept the median home price flat for Greater Phoenix overall. Phoenix was the only city with a year-over-year increase in median home price for May. Among these 14 cities, it looks like there is some real pain in Avondale and Goodyear.

Previous price charts
Archive of price charts

[Read more →]

Good!

Maybe the increased new-home impact fees in Chandler will help strengthen resale home prices in Chandler a tad bit.

[Read more →]