Forecast Accuracy Good in Recent Years
John was one of the first to call the Phoenix real estate bottom in 2011
When almost everyone else believed a huge “shadow inventory” was going to kill home prices, John wrote:
“I think the median Phoenix home price could quickly pop up to $144,000+ again. If not in the second half of this year, then certainly in the first half of 2012.” John Wake,
August 11, 2011.
Nailed it! The metro Phoenix median home price rose from $116,050 in August 2011 to $153,500 in May 2012.
See full post at “Phoenix foreclosures as percentage of homes sold continues to decline”.
John was THE first to forecast 2014’s “Return to Normal Market”
In 2013, John accurately forecast the critical change we would see in the 2014 Phoenix real estate market in 2013 – long before anyone else. He forecast the market could return to “normal” because of big increases in the number of non-distressed homes hitting the market and the subsequent rising inventory of homes listed for sale would slow down the rapid home price appreciation.
Several months later “return to normal” did indeed become the general catch phrase for the 2014 Phoenix real estate market.
See John’s original August 2013 post and especially the video here, “2014 Forecast for Phoenix Real Estate Market & Home Prices (video)”.