The future of mortgage loan origination

by John Wake on August 14, 2010

Here’s one guy’s view of the future of mortgage origination.

“The major market meltdown points to all of the sins perpetrated when you reduce the steps required to properly validate and verify information,” Anderson said.

In the future, Anderson says the LOS will:

–go from a manual people and paper validation process to a more automated and electronic verification process to trusted databases.

–build in the investors’ underwriting process and requirements right at the time of qualifying a borrower, then automatically key up the automated steps to process against them.

–integrate eSign capability

Once the borrower’s information is validated, the future LOS will feature an Electronic Doc Management (EDM) paperless processing system to support the tracking and versioning of documents and the entire loan file throughout the process.

It all sounds plausible to me.

Metro Phoenix home building forecast

by John Wake on August 13, 2010

I don’t see how they can forecast 8,500 single-family home building permits for all of 2010 when only 4,118 permits were issued in the first half of 2010, that’s the $8,000-first-time-home-buyer-tax-credit half of 2010.

But I don’t follow building permits so maybe I’m being too picky. Nevertheless, 2010 will be “the slowest year for housing construction in the Phoenix area for decades.”

(To give you an idea how bad 2010 is shaping up to be for new home construction in metro Phoenix, last year 12,500 single-family home permits were issued.)

More importantly, I think, the post by Catherine Reagor at azcentral.com says the experts are forecasting a 45% to 50% increase in permits in 2011 (to about 12,500 permits, I estimate) and then in 2012 an increase to 20,000 permits.

In conclusion;

  1. 2010 will be the worst year for metro Phoenix home construction in decades, and
  2. We can only go up from here.

I’m glad new home construction is so low because it helps with the oversupply of homes. But on the other hand, as Phoenix residential construction increases in 2011 and 2012, so will the Phoenix economy.

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Dr. Jay Butler of Realty Studies at Arizona State University came out with his Phoenix area residential real estate sales and median home price numbers for July 2010.

Greater Phoenix - Median Home Price

(Single-family resale homes. Excludes repossessions but includes sales by banks after they repossess. ASU calls these “Traditional Sales”)

July 2010: $137,500
July 2009: $135,500

The median price tanked in July falling $5,500 (-4%) from June ($143,000) to July ($137,500) as the effects of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit program wore off.

(This suggests the tax credit program raised home prices. Without the program, home buyers would have saved thousands of dollars anyway due to lower prices and without costing the U.S. government a dime. Oh, well.)

The median home price in Maricopa County bottomed out in April 2009 at $125,000 and rose 15% to peak at $144,000 in April and May 2010.

Greater Phoenix - Number of Homes Sold

(Single-family resale homes. Excludes repossessions but includes sales by banks after they repossess. ASU calls these “Traditional Sales”)

July 2010: 5,080
July 2009: 7,300

The number of homes sold in metro Phoenix also tanked in July falling 26% from June (6,885) to July (5,080).

My comment from last month has played out, “July should be a cliff in the number of homes sold and I expect a big fade in the median price.

NOTE: Dr. Butler’s ASU data measures median home price. He doesn’t measure home price appreciation directly, although the median price follows appreciation very closely. Case-Shiller data, however, directly measures home price appreciation and depreciation. Dr. Guntermann at ASU uses the same technique as Case-Shiller but Dr. Guntermann breaks down the data further to look at appreciation in the major cities within metro Phoenix as well as metro Phoenix as a whole. Case-Shiller and Guntermann release their numbers 2 months after the end of a month while Butler releases his numbers 2 weeks after the end of a month.

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“Ninety percent of homeowners say they don’t regret buying their home despite a nationwide tsunami of foreclosures, short sales and loan modifications…” Bankrate.com

That 90% is surprisingly high considering the devastation of this real estate bust. Americans must really love owning their homes.

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Cash out refinancing no longer cool

by John Wake on August 11, 2010

Via Seeking Alpha.

So-called cash-out loans, in which borrowers increase their loan amounts by at least 5 percent, accounted for 27% of all refinanced loans in the three months to June, capping the lowest three-quarter share on record. Cash-out refinances peaked at 88% in mid 2006.

Even Obama cashed out on his home, “… they owed about $240,000 on a home they purchased for about $159,250.”

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I gotta get back to talking about the Phoenix real estate market instead of all this macroeconomic stuff but with the impending overhaul of Fannie and Freddie, I really want to get a better feel for how any potential changes to Fannie and Freddie might impact the Phoenix area residential real estate market.

Here is a great explanation of the origins of the financial crisis.

I agree with a lot of it and it hangs together well, although I think he may put too much blame on Fannie and Freddie. (I know, I can’t believe I said that myself!)

It’s surprising that he puts so much blame on Fannie and Freddie because the author was a Senior VP, CFO and Chief Economist at Freddie Mac! But I guess there’s no one better to know the political and regulatory machinations that went on there. (Full 126 page report.)

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Cram downs were outlawed in 1993 but before that;

… the judge would reduce the balance of the secured claim to the current market value of the house, turning the remaining balance of the mortgage into an unsecured claim (which would receive the same proportionate payout as other unsecured debts included in the bankruptcy petition).

Calculated Risk believes that allowing bankruptcy judges to cram down mortgage modifications on lenders would encourage banks to make wiser mortgage lending decisions.

That’s probably right.

And the elimination of cram downs in 1993 probably reflected the growing political influence of the banks at that time and their growing ability to shape laws the way they wanted.

Allowing bankruptcy judges the ability to cram down mortgages seems pretty tame to me now.

On a related subject, check out the real world bankruptcy experience of russ in the comments in this post, “Can bankruptcy be better than foreclosure for some people?

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New York Times attacks Fannie and Freddie

by John Wake on August 8, 2010

It’s interesting that the New York Times today has decided to start attacking the mismanagement/fraud/corruption at Fannie and Freddie. It’s interesting because it’s not just a regulatory issue, it’s a political issue that the politicians have carefully avoided discussing.

Republican View

The Republicans tend to say the Dems were the problem with the Fannie and Freddie meltdown because the Dems were in charge of Fannie and the Dems thwarted attempts by the Republicans to add more regulations to Fannie and Freddie.

It’s interesting that in this case the free market Republicans were the ones who wanted more regulation. Was that because the Republicans saw the financial train wreck coming, or was it because the Republicans saw that the Dems had captured control of Fannie and Freddie and they were using that power to promote Democratic political objectives over Republican political objectives?

Democratic View

The Dems have tended to frame the crisis as not being the fault of Fannie and Freddie but the fault of the other banks and Wall Street (e.g., Paul Krugman), or if they do blame Fannie and Freddie they stress “bipartisan” political manipulation by Fannie and Freddie corporations.

Background

Fannie and Freddie worked both Democratic and Republican politicians, however, they leaned Democratic. For example, from 1991 to 2004 Fannie Mae was run by Democratic operatives James Johnson and Franklin Raines.

In addition to the usual ways of gaining political influence - large campaign donations and huge lobbying expenditures - one reporter has pointed out the revolving door technique used to string along bureaucrats into being cooperative, “For years, high-level jobs at Fannie Mae were lucrative prizes for lawyers, bankers and political operatives waiting for their next U.S. government post.”

It seems the political operatives were using Fannie and Freddie to promote their political and personal objectives, and Fannie and Freddie were using the political operatives to promote their business objectives. Nice symbiosis.

Even though the Democrats may have been doing the heavy lifting in the case of Fannie and Freddie, I’m certain the Republicans were carrying the water for other parts of the financial industry. We didn’t get near-total deregulation of the financial industry without strong bipartisan support over decades.

Fannie and Freddie “Capture” their Regulators

I think you could make a bipartisan case that the larger problem was that Fannie and Freddie “captured” their government regulators and politicians through their political influence, including the influence of their very political leadership teams and board members. (Board members got $160,000 a year for their part-time work on the board of directors - nice work if you can get it.)

Fannie and Freddie, I believe, were just an example of a larger issue, the financial industry had “captured” the regulators and politicians. (Just take a look at all the Wall Street guys we’ve had as Secretaries of the Treasury in recent decades.)

Quotes from New York Times article

Fannie and Freddie amplified the housing boom by buying mortgages from lenders, allowing them to originate even more loans. They grew into behemoths because they lobbied aggressively and played the Washington political game to a T. But after both companies bought boatloads of risky mortgages, they required a federal rescue.

Outwardly, Fannie and Freddie wrapped themselves in the American flag and the dream of homeownership. But internally, they were relentless in their pursuit of profits from partners in the mortgage boom. One of their biggest and most steadfast collaborators was Countrywide, the subprime lending machine run by Angelo R. Mozilo.

Countrywide was the biggest supplier of loans to Fannie during the mania; in 2004, it sold 26 percent of the loans Fannie bought. Three years later, it was selling 28 percent. What Countrywide got out of the relationship was clear — a buyer for its dubious loans. Now the taxpayer is on the hook for those losses.

(Later in 2004, by the way, the Securities and Exchange Commission found that Fannie had used improper accounting and ordered it to restate its earnings for the previous four years. Some $6.3 billion in profit was wiped out.)

But Representative Darrell Issa, a California Republican and ranking member on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, says he has concerns about such mating dances.

“Lost in the debate over how best to legislate the aftermath of the financial crisis has been the necessity to conduct an inward examination of the too-cozy relationship between government enterprises and private industry,” Mr. Issa said. “The true nature of this strategic partnership between Countrywide and Fannie-Freddie should be exposed so we can measure the extent to which it fostered the conditions leading to the financial meltdown.”

Understanding how these companies operated is crucial if we want to avoid repeating the mistakes of our recent past. So, when you hear about Fannie and Freddie reform this fall, remember that we still don’t know the half of it.

Questions

I don’t quite understand the objective of the New York Times with this article but I think it has to do with them pitching it as “housing reform” instead of what it really should be, “banking reform.”

The recent Financial Regulatory Reform bill went easy on the banks and Wall Street and by taking Fannie and Freddie out of the FinReg bill, the banking industry succeeds in making it look more like “housing reform” was the real problem not, “banking reform.”

I can see the mega banks blaming the financial meltdown on Fannie and Freddie now. Maybe this New York Times article is part of that PR strategy. The big banks probably want to draw attention away from the fact that the Financial Regulatory Reform bill that just passed didn’t do nearly enough to prevent future financial crises.

Anyway, that’s my theory this afternoon.

ADDED: From HousingWire;

After years of favorable consideration by both Republican and Democrats — the result of millions in lobbying expenses — Fannie and Freddie find themselves personae non grata on Capitol Hill.

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Fannie Mae REO Inventory doubles

by John Wake on August 8, 2010

Fannie Mae, “… we expect our REO inventory to continue to increase significantly throughout 2010.”

This is national, not just Arizona, but FYI.

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SB 1070 and home buyers with Hispanic last names

by John Wake on August 7, 2010

Given all the recent controversy about Arizona SB 1070 I thought you might be interested in revisiting a post from February, 2008 which detailed the most common last names of home buyers in Maricopa County, Arizona in 2007.

Where does your name rank?

Top 100 Home Buyer Last Names
Maricopa County, Arizona 2007

Most common surnames of buyers

Top 10 Last Names of Home Buyers

The Top 10 last names accounted for 4% of the homes sold in Maricopa County in 2007.

Top 100 Last Names of Home Buyers

The Top 100 last names accounted for 16% of homes sold in Maricopa County in 2007.

Most Buyers’ Last Names Occurred Only Once

Most homes were bought by buyers whose last names occurred only once in the list of 2007 buyers.

For example, my surname “Wake” only occurred once in the list of Maricopa County home buyers in 2007.

Once is quite common, however.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of the homes purchased in Maricopa County in 2007 were bought by buyers whose last names only occurred once in the list of home buyers.

The Data

This analysis was derived from official Maricopa County, Arizona data on home sales in the county. Any errors, however, are my own.

Both resale and new home purchases were included.

When two or more buyers bought a home, only the surname of the first buyer listed in the county records was used for this analysis.

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Change to Arizona home appraisal system

by John Wake on August 7, 2010

This may be a little “inside baseball” for Realtors, lenders and appraisers but the recently signed Financial Regulation Reform bill changes how home purchase appraisals are done.

The bottom line is the new system should be good for Arizona home sellers. We expect to see more accurate Arizona home appraisals.

Background

When home prices busted, some people blamed appraisers saying they were in cahoots with the lenders who selected them to do their appraisals. So the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) was created in which lenders had to use the next appraiser in line, so to speak.

This system, however, often caused bad appraisals when appraisers worked in areas they didn’t have much, if any, experience… but where the appraisers selected were the next appraisers in line.

In addition, the appraisers themselves were being paid significantly less under the HVCC system which some blamed for the shotty appraisals.

If you had a bad appraisal when selling an Arizona home, the HVCC system could have been part of your problem.

New Home Appraisal System

Via HousingWire.

The newly enacted bill, unlike HVCC, allows Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to accept any appraisal report completed by an appraiser selected or paid by a mortgage loan originator.

The reform also stipulates that the new standards will include a requirement that lenders and their agents pay appraisers at market rates.

The new standards will still subject loan originators to any state or federal laws that prohibit it from making payments, threats or promises to an appraiser to influence the work. But nothing in the standards will prohibit a person with an interest in the transaction from asking the appraiser to consider other information, provide further detail or correct errors in the appraisal.

The HVCC will be eliminated in a few months.

On the Other Hand

With home prices phenomenally lower than a few years ago and continuing to fall in some parts of metro Phoenix, expect Arizona home sellers to continue to be ticked at Arizona appraisers.

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Via HousingWire.

‘The value of JP Morgan Chase’s real estate owned (REO) assets — insured by government agencies — nearly tripled since the 2nd Quarter of 2009, due to a large increase in the rate of mortgage buybacks from Ginnie Mae mortgage-backed securities (MBS)’

I believe this could be a strong trend for years - Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie kicking back mortgages to the banks who originated them and misrepresented them.

Four banks control about two-thirds of the mortgage industry - JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo - so they are at high risk if this trend continues.

Will this forced buyback trend affect the supply of REOs listed for sale in metro Phoenix? It seems like it could but I just don’t know.

Also see, article on Bank of American mortgage repurchases.

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Check out the zip code graphs in the right-hand column.

You don’t need anything else to see what’s happening with the real estate market in your Phoenix area zip code.

Video Comments on Paradise Valley home sales and South Gilbert home sales

Also, my written comments about the Phoenix real estate market last month still look good.

All 124 Phoenix area zip code real estate charts available in the right-hand column have now been updated through JUNE 2010 with the number of home sales, the median home price and the median home price per square foot.

More on Seville homes sold and Seville homes for sale.

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Paul Volcker on Fannie and Freddie

by John Wake on August 5, 2010

Via Wall Street Journal.

According to former Federal Reserve Chairman and current Obama adviser Paul Volcker, Fannie and Freddie need to go.

Mr. Volcker: People talk about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That’s a challenge for next year and year following. We are going to have to reconstruct the whole mortgage market and you can’t do that overnight. The mortgage market now is almost a wholly owned subsidiary of the United States government. Almost all the mortgages made now are insured by the government, bought by the government, and the guys at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the market.

Not much exists without the government running it. I don’t think that’s what we want. A lot of problems surround the whole mortgage market. It’s clear Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac need to go. We don’t need these hybrid institutions. You don’t know whether they should be responsible to the government or to stockholders. It’s an unfortunate invention. (emphasis mine)

Oh great!

Yeah, it needs to be done but, holy mackerel, “reconstructing the whole mortgage market” will add a ton of uncertainty to the housing market for a year or two.

The uncertainty will be bad for the housing market and will likely delay a strong housing recovery until the reconstructing is done and the new rules of the game are known.

P.S. My guess is the politicians will ultimately construct a mortgage market that lets the too-big-to-fail banks make a ton of money. I say that because the recent Financial Regulation Reform bill ended up being very easy on Wall Street.

ADDED: More on Congressional efforts for “a complete restructuring of the tangle of housing finance tools.” I don’t have a good feeling about this.

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Vote for Best Real Estate Blog. Thank You!

by John Wake on August 2, 2010

Vote!

You can vote once a day through August 11, so please do! Thanks again, John.

ADDED: As John points out in his comment below, list order changes all the time so don’t just select the 4th one down.

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