The annual series of phenomenal dog shows at WestWorld started today. It’s great stuff if you like dogs.
Don’t forget to bring a folding chair, a hat, sunscreen and water.
Here are some pictures from last year’s show.
Notice that the human member of this agility team is in a wheelchair!
A Great Dane is getting prepped for the show ring.
In the show ring, the blue ribbon min pin (on right) is getting his photo taken.
You can find more information here.
According to Freddie Mac;
“Long-term fixed mortgage rates trended up for a third week, bringing rates on 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages back to their levels of last November,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “Refinancing activities, which had surged to a 12-month high in January, according to Freddie Mac’s monthly refi share report, are likely to ebb following this recent rise in rates.”
I would have to agree that there is a lot of interest in Arizona homes priced under $200,000. This is also a price point that is very popular with Canadians looking for vacation homes.
Shawn and Charlene McNeely, who live in Mesa, jumped into the low-end market to generate retirement income. They have bought three homes with the help of real estate agent Marie Nowicki of Re/Max Elite in the past six months ranging in price from $200,000 to $220,000. Two of the homes are in Gilbert and one is in Chandler.
One of the Gilbert homes was owned by a 65-year-old woman whose 95-year-old mother has Alzheimer’s disease and lives with her. The women were about to lose their home because they couldn’t keep up with their mortgage payments, which ballooned to $3,000 a month on an adjustable-rate loan.
The McNeelys said they now rent the home back to the women for $1,200 a month.
“She was very happy because for months, she was in fear of losing her home and being displaced,” Shawn McNeely said. “Unfortunately, somebody’s misfortune becomes somebody else’s opportunity.”
From the Arizona Department of Real Estate;
The Department has been notified that Randall Martin Homes’ subdivision lot holdings are going into foreclosure. According to Randall Bury, owner of Randall Martin Homes, the company is “walking away” from its holdings in Marley Park, Roosevelt Park, Valley at Dobson Crossing (aka Portello at Dobson Crossing) and Higley Park. It is anticipated that the lien holder(s) will assume ownership. No complaints have been filed regarding Randall Martin Homes; however, we believe that it is important to alert Consumers and Industry of the company’s intentions. ADRE is proactively taking steps to ensure consumer protection. Should consumers have questions or concerns, please contact Cindy Ferrin, Manager - Development Services at cferrin@azre.gov. [emphasis added]
The Arizona Republic looks at the “walking away” of the Scottsdale company from unfinished houses and empty lots, and it’s effect on homeowners in one Randall Martin subdivision, Portello at Dobson Creek in Chandler, Arizona.
The company is not filing for bankruptcy! Just “walking away.” Interesting.
Instead, the builder’s lien holders will take over ownership of the vacant lots and unsold homes, which could cause a three- to five-year delay in completing the development.
What a mess!
That’s gotta hurt your property values when you have unfinished homes in your neighborhood with no completion date in sight.
Since they’ve moved in, they haven’t heard from the builder, who was supposed to complete final repairs within 30 days. The only company they have heard from is a subcontractor threatening to put a lien on their house if the builder doesn’t pay a $500 bill.
The builder’s lawyer says Randall Martin will honor it’s warranties. I’m not seeing any customer service awards in Randall Martin’s future.
Randall Martin must have some assets otherwise they would have declared bankruptcy. The homeowners might have to play hardball with Randall Martin to get their warranty work done.
“I’m freaking out because I bought this brand new house and thought all these things were going to be fixed,” she said. “You expect all those things you agreed upon to happen and now with him going out of business, I don’t know how they’re ever going to happen.”
A separate article on Randall Martin had this to say;
Recognizing signs that a builder is in trouble and reporting them to the Real Estate Department can help head off problems, Utley said.
“One sign is a mechanic’s lien,” she said. “If a builder has not paid a tradesperson, after a certain period of time they will get a lien placed on the property and there will be a notice placed on the house. It’s a good sign the builder is in trouble.”
How would you like to find out that you have a mechanics lien against your brand new home because the builder skipped out on the sub-contractors. It’s absolutely no fault of your own, but the lien is against your home.
Trade people are not getting paid, and that’s kind of a red flag that the developer is having difficulty
Yep. That’s a red flag and a real problem for new home buyers.
New home buyers beware!
The home price depreciation in Phoenix continues to accelerate according to the latest Case-Shiller numbers.
From November to December the Phoenix Home Price Index fell 3.6% which was even larger than the crazy large decline the previous month, 3.2%. From June to December prices fell 11.7%. Yikes!
If anything close to that rate continues, Phoenix home prices should “bottom out” in 2008.
The Case-Shiller index, however, obscures the large differences within metro Phoenix sub-markets.
A Virginia Realtor explains, Short Sales Are “Fake Listings”.
He brings up an excellent point about short sales that I hadn’t thought of. If your home has private mortgage insurance (PMI) then the bank may make more money foreclosing on you and getting the insurance payment than by cutting a deal with you on a short sale.
Ironic ain’t it that that expensive PMI that you’ve been paying all this time only protects the bank from loss and may in fact make your bank less willing to cooperate with you on a short sale.
Here is my take on short sales taken from my email outbox.
This home is a possible short sale which means the price may be b.s., the seller put in a price but the bank hasn’t agreed to it.
… “short sales” often have bogus prices. A short sale is were the seller owes more to the bank than what the home is worth. The bank has to approve the sale price of course since they will receive less than they are owed. The seller will sometimes put a crazy low price on the home to generate interest knowing full well that the bank will never accept such a low price. The seller isn’t going to make any money so he doesn’t care what it sells for.
I suggest that you avoid short sales. However, bank owned (previously foreclosed) property can be a good way to go.
The home you mentioned below, MLS#2772975, is a short sale. In many short sales the list price is bogus because the bank will never approve such a low price. It’s just a way to generate interest in the home.
Only 4 homes that meet your criteria are for sale right now and 2 of them are short sales so their prices may be B.S. prices that the banks will never approve.
Avoid homes that say “short sale” their prices are often not real. Completely avoid any that say auction. Bank owned homes can be a good value although they often need TLC since the people getting foreclosed on may have trashed the place.
I think you get the idea that I believe short sales are a huge waste of time for both you and me.
Am I wrong? Talk me out of it. Leave a comment.
(Hat tip to Dru Bloomfield.)
Standard & Poors Ratings Services lowered its ratings on Meritage Homes Corp to BB-, citing continued pressure on the US-based home builders primary homebuilding markets of Arizona, California, and Nevada.
S&P did say that Meritage’s near-term liquidity was currently adequate, but would weaken if market conditions did not begin to stabilize.
I just finished a major project to add a zip code map to each of the Zip Code Real Estate Notebook pages.
I understand the market a ton better when I see exactly where the homes are located that are generating the statistics on the Real Estate Notebook pages. The maps give me a solid “anchor” for each zip code.
I hope you will agree that adding the zip code maps was invaluable.
These zip code maps are found nowhere else on the web! I had to create each one myself.
You would think - I certainly did - that the U.S. Post Office would have zip code maps online that I could link to. Unfortunately, I could never find any. In fact, I couldn’t find any source for individual zip code maps online. So I created them myself.
In addition, I created an overview map of metro Phoenix zip codes.
The general location of the each zip code is given with a blue marker. Click on the blue marker (blue map pin) and you’ll see a link which will take you to the Real Estate Notebook for that zip code.
I expect this map to be especially helpful to people who aren’t familiar with where Phoenix zip codes are located… that’s pretty much everyone.
You can click on the mini-map or the text link in the right-hand column to see the Phoenix / Scottsdale Zip Code Map.
These maps don’t include Pinal county zip codes.
Please, tell your friends about Arizona Real Estate Notebook.
Especially, tell your friends who are considering buying or selling real estate that you know a Realtor who knows his numbers, a Realtor who is a real professional.
I just finished updating the zip code notebooks with data for January 2008. January was generally weak as it is every year.
Select your zip code from the list in the right-hand column or click here to see the list of zip code real estate notebooks.
Obviously, buyers with Hispanic surnames are a huge part of our real estate market.
February is great month for apocalyptic real estate writing.
January is the worst month for Arizona real estate closings and median home prices. Even though the real estate market, in fact, turns the corner in January every year, those sales won’t close until February and that data won’t be seen until mid-March.
So now is a good time to indulge your fears about the real estate market. After this, the news will be more upbeat for several months.
The median home price (green line) in metro Phoenix dropped, and I mean dropped like a rock, $9,800 from December to January. I don’t have the data but I’m guessing that was the largest one month drop in the median home price in metro Phoenix since Jack Swilling crossed the Salt.
I will predict that January will be the largest one month decline in the Phoenix median home price that we will see in this cycle and probably my lifetime. [Note: I made a spectacularly wrong prediction 14 months ago so take my predictions for what they’re worth.]
Closings will increase seasonally February through May. Normally, prices buck up too. This year I don’t know. With such strong downward momentum, I wonder if we’ll see much of a winter/spring bump in prices.
The blue line is the number of listed homes sold by month. The total number of sales in January is the lowest sales month since sometime in the 1990’s.
Notice that every year sales go up early in the year and then flatten out, more or less, before declining after the high season. It’s a very predictable pattern. That means by mid-April we’ll probably have a good idea about how the entire year will play out for home sales.
Last month I said, “I don’t see anything to make me think the inventory of homes listed for sale won’t start climbing again in February like it did last year.” And that’s what happened.
Certainly given the intense downward momentum entering 2008, it’s possible we could see price declines this year similar to or larger than those in 2007.
The median home price in metro Phoenix fell from $250,000 in January 2007 to $220,000 in January 2008. That’s a decline of $30,000 or 12% for the year.
The last time the median home price was $220,000 was in April 2005. Now for a little trip down real estate memory lane. Two months earlier in February 2005, the median home price in metro Phoenix was $190,000. That’s right, the median home price increased $30,000 (16%) in 2 months.
“MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.
I wrote an article with Judy Hedding of Phoenix About.com in 2006 about the different types of homes in Arizona - single family detached, condo, townhouse, patio, loft, twin/gemini, manufactured and mobile homes.
Judy’s readers often asked her questions about what the differences were between the different Arizona home types.
In Arizona, for example, we have “patio homes.” Many out of state people (and in state people) have never heard the term, patio home.
We also have the constant confusion between a duplex and a twin/gemini home. And don’t forget the confusion between manufactured and mobile homes.
If that weren’t confusing enough, there is no official definition of Arizona home types in the Arizona MLS. Some homes could be called a condo, townhouse, patio home or twin/gemini home and each would be correct.
I just looked over the article, Types of Homes in Phoenix and Scottsdale, again for the first time in over a year and, boy, it still looks good! It’s a nice evergreen piece. Check it out.
Well, About.com has a new policy that guest authors have to sign over their publication rights but in return they get a bio on About.com. Cool. John Wake - Phoenix Guest Author at About.com.
I just wanted to drop a quick note to Kelly and Dave in Tucson to mention that the ASU Sun Devils beat the UofA Wildcats in basketball TWICE this year and, of course, the Sun Devils were able to squeak a victory against Tucson in football as well.
Just a friendly note to point out that this was the first time since 1981-82 that ASU has won both basketball games and the football game against UofA.
ASU’s Realty Studies just released their monthly study on Greater Phoenix home prices. This is the study that I based the 14 city graphs I used to do before I created the zip code real estate notebook graphs.
The median home price opened the year at $230,000, which is below the $232,000 of December 2007 and last year’s $260,000. It represents a continuation in declining median price, which started at $265,000 in July 2007 [should read 2006].
So for Greater Phoenix, the median home price in January was 13% below the peak in July 2006, 12% below last January, 1% below December.
This is the lowest monthly median home price since $221,000 in April 2005, but better than the $194,000 reported in January of 2005.
Ah, the memories… of the median home price increasing $10,000 a month for a few months in early 2005. Everybody wanted to buy a home and sellers were real jerks.
That aggressive attitude that paid off so well for so many sellers for several months in 2004 and 2005 has caused a ton of sellers to ride the market down because they sure as hell were not going to sell unless they could get “their price.” Now, their home is worth significantly less than it was several months ago. The market has gone from greed to fear for sellers.
Online I can’t find the ASU Realty Studies press release so I reproduced it here.
Now isn’t this interesting.
The daughter of Vice Chairman and co-founder Bruce Toll informed the company last month that she and her husband “did not intend to make settlement” on a $2.47 million home they had previously agreed to purchase… Toll Brothers went on to say that it intends to pursue its rights
Blood is thicker than water… but not money.
Hat tip Seeking Alpha.
I was quoted extensively in the East Valley Tribune yesterday in a story entitled, “Major upgrades might not be worthwhile, expert says.”
This is a dilemma that many home sellers have, “Should I upgrade the house before I put it on the market or not?” I get calls on this all the time.
It doesnt make sense for a seller to embark on that large remodeling project he’s always wanted to do right before selling, said real estate agent John Wake, with HomeSmart in Scottsdale.
Its better to drop the price of the home because the goal is to get out, Wake said.
“There’s a really strong tendency to put too much money in a house to get it to sell,” he said.
If parts of the home have already been remodeled, the owner may want to bring the rest of it up to date in some cases, Wake said.
But there are effective, less expensive, ways to spruce up a homes appearance.
Real estate agents say new paint and carpeting are two of the easiest and most cost effective ways to improve a house. Getting rid of clutter to make the house look larger is also key.
Older homes could benefit from new light fixtures. New kitchen cabinets and appliances also make a difference, Wake said.
Another simple upgrade is improving the landscaping.
Owners can trim back trees or remove bushes that obscure the front door, Wake said. Owners often dont know what types of plants or colors to use, so its worth the money to bring in a professional from a local nursery for advice, he said.
“Ill see a million dollar home. The interior is spectacular and the landscaping looks terrible,” he said.
About that last quote, I remember seeing this million dollar home in McCormick Ranch [okay, it was over-priced] that had extensive remodeling of the interior but the backyard still had the original railroad ties as part of the landscape! Railroad ties were way groovy in the mid-1970s when McCormick Ranch was first built. To my eye, you might as well have the original refrigerator in the house.
One of the most cost effective investments, I believe, is talking with a home stager on how to make your home look it’s best before putting it on the market.
[When I say staging, I’m not talking about renting furniture. I’m talking about how a home seller can make their place look great with what’s already in the home.]
I believe in home staging so much that I usually pay for a professional home stager to consult with my clients who are selling their homes.
For the landscaping, I will pick up the cost of a consultation with a landscape designer, if my client wants to spend some money to beautify the landscaping.
Talking to the pros helps my clients know which items will make the most effective use of their time and money when preparing their homes for sale.
According to Freddie Mac;
“Long-term mortgage rates were little changed this week, largely in sync with the movements in the Treasury bond yields during the same time,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “Additionally, economic news released in the past week showed that the economy continues to be weak.
Case-Shiller numbers show home prices depreciating at an increasing rate in these Western cities. Does that make any sense?
Well, it’s old news that prices fell in November but it’s nice, I suppose, to know the exact magnitude of the decline.
The Case-Shiller numbers show metro Phoenix home prices fell by 3.2% in the single month of November. One remark, “Wow!” The previous big loser was October 2007 with a 2.3% fall.
So using Case-Shiller numbers, Phoenix home prices are down 14.5% from the peak of July 2006 and down 12% January through November 2007.
Prices will continue to fall in December and January. It will be interesting to see if the typical seasonal strength in prices February through May will be able to stop the fall. With so much downward momentum, it’s hard to see how the high season could stop the fall. It will probably just slow it down.
What’s great about this month compared to the last time I published this graph is that now I have charts of the median home prices by zip code in Maricopa county, Arizona.
Metro Phoenix is many real estate markets. The Case-Shiller indices hide the fact that there are large differences within the Phoenix market.
My median home price graphs by zip code can help you untangle some of the sub-markets of the Phoenix real estate market.
Dian Hymer says deciding on offer price depends on market trends, urgency of seller.
She is right on here.
… although the listing inventory is high in most places, sellers are not equally motivated to sell.
There are sellers who would like to sell, but who don’t have to sell. If they don’t get their price, they either stay put or rent out the property until the market turns. Sellers who don’t need to sell are often resistant to negotiating the price.
Motivated sellers, on the other hand, need to sell. They could be transferred by their employer and have to relocate quickly. Or, they might be facing financial hardship. Or, perhaps they have already bought another home. These sellers have a deadline to meet. They are usually open to considering all offers.
Read the whole thing about all the fun at the 16th hole at the FBR Open in Scottsdale Arizona.
“I think you need to go to the 16th hole to understand,” said Tom Lehman, who has homes in Del Mar and Scottsdale. “On Saturday and Sunday, especially, when the crowds are at their peak on the hillside on the back, the green is full of people sitting and watching. It’s virtually a bowl. It’s like playing a golf shot in the Rose Bowl. It’s unlike anyplace that you’ll ever go.”
Five bunkers hug the slick green, but it’s the people jammed in the double layers of boxes and suites and filling the hill behind the hole that makes this place thunder.
“It’s like a rock ‘n’ roll major,” said Santa Ana’s Kent Sneden, taking it in for the first time. “I’ve never seen anything like it.”
Neither have the players.
“Its like a football atmosphere out there on a golf course,” Brandt Snedeker said. “It’s different out there from what we are used to.”
Like the 20-something bunch near the tee box. They come prepared, peppering players with tidbits that are stunning.
“It’s amazing,” Lehman said. “Those guys who have always sat right next to the tee, all the college kids with all the different football jerseys, they know every player’s alma mater, every fight song. So when you show up on the Tour they start singing, whether it be the Minnesota Gophers or the Michigan Wolverines or maybe the Packer jersey for Jerry Kelly, but they must have a truckload of jerseys and a boxful of music to know all the words.”
Word is No. 16 first got its groove on when Hal Sutton scored an ace in 1988 and the place went bonkers. Others point to 1997 when Tiger Woods scored a hole-in-one and it started raining —- beer cups. Some were empty, some were full, some we aren’t sure where they came from.
I’ve had a few inquiries about buying finished lots in Arizona but didn’t know where to refer them. Finished lots seem like they could really be a good long term investment, if you can buy them right.
During the last few weeks of 2007, as many 8,000 vacant but finished home lots ready for construction sold in the Phoenix area, according to Scottsdale-based land brokerage and consulting firm Nathan & Associates.
“Investors are offering about 30 cents on the dollar for finished lots now,” said Nathan Nathan. “So if it cost a builder $700 a foot to finish the lot (get it ready for a new home), then buyers are offering $350 to $500 a foot.”
Nathan’s not the guy I’m looking for. He plays with the big boys. I’m looking for someone who can handle the lone doctor or small business owner looking for a longish term investment.
During the fourth quarter, housing giants D.R. Horton, Pulte Homes, Lennar, Centex and Toll Brothers, lost a total of $1.47 billion due to falling land values.
RL Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter, tallied 61,000 finished lots sitting empty across the Valley.
Thank you in advance for your help!
Anybody know a good Payson, Arizona Realtor out there?
I have a ton of good Realtors in my… uh… Rolodex (actually, Top Producer) that I refer people to when they are looking for properties in areas (West Valley) or property types (commercial, vacant land) I don’t handle.
I don’t have anyone I trust in Payson, though.
It works best if the Realtor is with brokerage that charges their agents low fees.
When it rains it pours!
Too bad Phoenix isn’t one of the cities where Beazer will stop building.
Beazer said the company will exit home-building operations in Charlotte, N.C., Cincinnati/Dayton and Columbus, Ohio, Columbia, S.C., and Lexington, Ky.
A recent article mentioned how Arizona building permits in 2007 were down 25% and Arizona homebuilders production was down 27%. Not nearly good enough because other sources show that Arizona homebuilder inventory of spec homes has not gone down.
Arizona home builders continue to be behind the curve and continue to chase the market down.
Until Arizona homebuilders significantly cut their inventory of spec homes, the market, especially in the outlying areas, won’t be able to rebound.
So, the announcement of the bankruptcies of Arizona homebuilders is clearly great news for Arizona homeowners. Perhaps bankruptcy will force those builders to significantly cut production.
The more, the better.
There is a surge of purchases of Arizona properties by Canadians but on the flip side, American are still buying recreation properties in Canada as well.
“American buyers are still coming here,” Nielsen told the Georgia Straight. “There’s still a great demand for Washington guys to drive up to B.C. and get some great skiing, some fishing, and even some of our golf. So they’re still buying recreational land.”
